Incrementum: Monthly Gold Compass July 2025

Incrementum is back with some of the best free gold research online — don’t miss their latest Gold Monthly Compass. Packed with charts, insights, and macro context, this July edition helps you stay ahead of the trends shaping gold markets. 📊 Key highlights include: – Gold’s performance vs. other major assets year-to-date – Inflation trends and real interest rate outlooks – Central bank gold buying and ETF flows – Key technical levels to watch this summer – Updated positioning data and sentiment indicators

Gold Rebounds After Trump Escalates Trade Fight With Asia

Gold prices trimmed earlier losses after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea, set to begin August 1. While gold initially dipped due to a stronger dollar—boosted by talk of broader tariffs on BRICS-aligned nations—investors quickly turned back to gold as a safe haven amid renewed trade uncertainty. Bullion remains up over 25% for the year, supported by central bank buying and strong ETF inflows. With markets bracing for further tariff threats, gold’s role as a hedge remains firmly in focus.

Goldman Sachs: Fed Could Start Cutting Rates by September

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates as early as September—three months earlier than its previous forecast. The shift comes as disinflationary pressures have proven stronger than anticipated, and the economic effects of tariffs appear smaller than expected. While the labor market remains healthy, signs of softening—like fewer job openings and slowing wage growth—support the case for easing. Goldman now sees five rate cuts by mid-2026 and a lower long-term terminal rate of 3.0–3.25%, down from 3.5–3.75%.

Beyond the Budget: What Happens If the U.S. Doesn’t Rein In Debt

America’s budget deficit is ballooning—and it’s raising red flags across the financial world. Independent forecasts, including from Yale and the CBO, say President Trump’s budget plan could add trillions to the national debt in the next decade. The deficit is now over 6% of GDP, its highest level outside of wartime or crisis. CNBC’s special report, America’s Deficit Reckoning, explores how this rising debt could impact markets, the economy, and U.S. global power. Experts warn that rising interest payments, inflation risks, and reduced fiscal flexibility could create lasting damage—especially for future generations.

Inflation in Check for Now, But Reserve Bank of Australia Says Risks Remain

Australia’s central bank is keeping a close eye on inflation risks, even as recent data shows price growth remains within target. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock warned that high labor costs and weak productivity could still push inflation higher. While the board is aligned on direction, members were divided on timing, with some favoring an immediate rate cut. Bullock emphasized the need for more data before making further moves and highlighted global uncertainty—especially from ongoing trade tensions—as a key concern.

Hungary’s Inflation Rises Again, Led by Food and Energy Costs

Hungary’s inflation rate rose to 4.6% in June, driven by higher food, energy, and service costs. While this matched economists’ expectations, it marked the highest inflation level since March. Despite government efforts to cap prices on essentials like food, energy, and telecom services, consumer prices continue to rise. Food alone saw a 6.2% increase, with staples like eggs and flour jumping over 20%. The central bank has held interest rates steady for nine consecutive months, signaling ongoing caution amid persistent inflation and weak economic growth.

Australia’s Central Bank Delays Rate Cut Despite Easing Inflation

Australia’s central bank surprised markets by keeping interest rates steady at 3.85% instead of cutting them as expected. Most investors had predicted a rate cut due to slowing inflation and weak consumer spending, but the Reserve Bank of Australia said it needs more data before easing. The decision sent the Australian dollar higher and bond markets lower. While the bank still sees a rate cut in the near future, likely in August, it’s treading cautiously amid global uncertainty and recent trade tensions.

Has Gold Peaked? Here’s What the M2-to-Gold Ratio Data Shows 

Has gold really peaked — or is the next breakout just beginning? Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard reveal what the M2-to-Gold Ratio is signaling now…

Countdown to Tariffs: August 1 Deadline Looms for U.S. Trade Partners

President Trump has announced sweeping new tariffs: 25% on goods from Japan and South Korea, and up to 40% on imports from a dozen other countries. Set to take effect August 1, the move has reignited fears of global trade disruptions. Trump warned that any retaliatory tariffs would be met with even higher U.S. duties. While framed as a strategy to revive domestic manufacturing, the tariffs are already shaking markets, boosting bond yields, and raising recession concerns. Negotiations remain possible, but uncertainty is high.

Tariffs vs. Treasuries: What’s Pressuring Gold Prices Now

Gold edged lower this week, driven by a spike in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields after President Trump introduced aggressive new tariffs targeting major Asian trade partners. The move—intended to force renegotiation of trade deals—raised concerns about slowing global growth and potential retaliatory moves from China. While rising yields typically reduce gold’s appeal, the economic uncertainty introduced by tariffs could support gold in the longer term. Investors are also eyeing upcoming Fed meeting minutes for hints about future interest rate paths.