Geopolitics, Copper Tariffs, and OPEC+ Moves Put Oil in Flux

Oil prices slipped Wednesday, but the energy market remains on edge. A deadly attack in the Red Sea, lower U.S. output forecasts, and new copper tariffs from President Trump are all influencing prices. Brent and WTI both fell slightly as traders weighed the risks. There’s a lot happening at once: OPEC+ is adding more oil to the market, but inventories haven’t climbed, showing strong demand. Meanwhile, U.S. travel surged over the July 4 weekend, giving short-term support to fuel prices. The big question now is how rising global tensions and shifting trade policies will shape energy markets going forward.

This Warning Signal Says Recession Risk Is Triple the Normal Rate

A growing gap between two key consumer confidence measures is flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy—and the stock market. The unusually wide spread between the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (UMI) has historically signaled an increased risk of recession. Right now, that spread is in the top 10% of its historical range, a level associated with a tripled chance of recession within 12 months. The disconnect suggests Americans are generally optimistic about the economy—but more worried about their personal financial situations. This divergence has preceded weaker performance in stocks, […]

$4 Trillion Milestone Fuels AI Hype — and Valuation Concerns

Nvidia just hit a massive milestone: a $4 trillion market value—more than any company in history. Its stock has soared over 1,000% since 2023, powered by booming demand for its AI chips from tech titans like Microsoft and Amazon. But some market watchers are raising red flags. Nvidia now makes up 7.5% of the entire S&P 500, and that kind of dominance can create serious risks if sentiment turns. While analysts say the stock is still reasonably priced given its earnings growth, the broader market looks increasingly reliant on just a few high-flying names—an imbalance that could spark trouble if […]

Trump Eyes Fed Shakeup: Hassett, Bessent Among Top Contenders

President Trump is getting louder about replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—and the list of candidates is growing fast. Names like Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, and Kevin Warsh are being floated, with each offering sharp critiques of the current Fed’s direction. Trump has been especially vocal about wanting lower interest rates and blames Powell for not moving fast enough. One scenario being considered: appointing Hassett to the Fed board first, then making him Chair when Powell’s term ends next May. Trump has even joked about liking Bessent more than Powell and hasn’t ruled out giving him both the Treasury and Fed […]

World Gold Council: Gold ETF Inflows Hit Highest First-Half Total Since 2020

“Gold ETFs capped off a strong first half of 2025 with global inflows of $38 billion—the highest six-month total since H1 2020. June alone saw a significant surge across all regions, lifting global gold ETF holdings to their highest level in nearly three years. Total assets under management (AUM) rose 41% to $383 billion. North America led the inflows with $21 billion for H1, driven by mounting geopolitical risks and shifting interest rate expectations. Europe turned positive for the first time since 2022, adding $6 billion in the first half. Asia recorded a historic $11 billion in inflows, with China, […]

Consolidation, Not Capitulation: Why Gold’s Rally May Still Have Legs

Gold, silver, and platinum are taking a breather after a big run-up—but don’t count them out just yet. Gold and silver are both up 26% so far this year, and platinum is leading the pack with a 54% surge. Prices have leveled off recently, especially for gold, but experts say this is likely just a pause before another leg higher. The forces driving metals higher—like central bank buying, inflation risks, and a weaker dollar—are still in play. Plus, with interest rate cuts on the table, gold and silver could get a boost as holding metals becomes more attractive than short-term […]

Is Gold’s Bull Run Over? This Overlooked Indicator Says No

Banks split on gold: Citi says $2,500, JPM says $4,000. Mike Maloney examines the M2/gold ratio for the real story

Dollar Rallies as Trump Threatens Tariffs on Copper, Semiconductors

The U.S. dollar held near its highest level in over two weeks against the Japanese yen as President Trump ramped up trade tensions, announcing a fresh round of tariffs set to begin August 1. The dollar also edged higher against major currencies following threats of levies on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Despite recent strength, the dollar index remains down over 6% since Trump introduced “Liberation Day” tariffs in April. Markets are interpreting these aggressive moves as negotiation tactics, but Japan remains far from a deal, causing its yen to weaken sharply. Investors are also watching upcoming Japanese elections and U.S. […]

Trump Hits Copper With 50% Tariff, Eyes Pharma and Chips Next

President Trump has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and says more tariffs are coming soon — including steep levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. U.S. copper prices jumped over 10% on the news, while global trade partners like Japan and South Korea are scrambling to respond. Trump claims talks with the EU and China are progressing, but global markets remain on edge as the trade agenda expands with little notice or clarity.

U.S. Copper Costs Soar — Businesses Could Feel the Squeeze

U.S. copper prices have hit record highs following President Trump’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports. While meant to boost domestic production, experts say that will take years — and the U.S. still relies on imports for nearly half its copper needs. Prices on the Comex jumped 13% in a single day, far outpacing global benchmarks. With the premium between U.S. and global copper prices hitting unprecedented levels, analysts warn of serious consequences for manufacturers, construction, and the broader economy.