Tariff Uncertainty Could Tip U.S. into Mild Recession by Autumn 2025

As of July 2025, the U.S. economy is on solid footing: inflation has eased closer to—but remains above—the Fed’s 2% goal, and strong job gains mean interest rates stay steady. Trump-era tariffs have slightly reduced consumers’ purchasing power, but most sectors are holding up. If key tariff disputes are settled by summer’s end, growth should continue uninterrupted, with only minor headwinds from tighter labor supply and small Medicaid spending cuts. If tariff uncertainty drags into autumn, however, businesses may delay investment and hiring and consumers may pull back—pushing the economy into a mild recession about half as severe as a […]

Russia’s Central Bank Delivers 200 bps Rate Cut as Inflation Slows

On Friday, Russia’s central bank slashed its benchmark rate from 20% to 18%, matching economists’ expectations and marking its biggest cut in over three years. The move follows signs that consumer prices are cooling—CPI even dipped 0.05% week-on-week—and annual inflation has eased from a 10.3% peak in March to 9.17%. Having hiked aggressively since mid-2023 to curb overheating from surging military spending, the bank now projects 2025 inflation at 6–7% and maintains its 2024–25 GDP growth outlook of 1–2%. While businesses and Deputy PM Marat Khusnullin have pushed for steeper cuts—some calling for a 400 bps move—Governor Elvira Nabiullina and […]

Gold Breaks Below 50-Day Average

On Friday, spot gold extended its pullback—testing the $3,341.10 mark, which represents its 50-day moving average—after breaking below the short-term pivot of $3,347.97. Strength in the U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields, coupled with renewed confidence in risk assets, prompted investors to trim their bullion positions. Technical indicators now point to a potential slide toward $3,310.48 if gold fails to hold the 50-day line, though a rebound above $3,347.97 could stabilize prices.

Gold Spot Price Explained: Why It Changes Every 15 Seconds

If you’ve ever watched gold prices in real time, you’ve likely noticed something fascinating — the numbers just don’t sit still. Every 15 seconds or so, the gold spot price refreshes like clockwork, creating a steady rhythm of movement that can feel both hypnotic and confusing. But what’s really behind these constant shifts?  If you want to stay ahead in the precious metals market, you need to grasp why the gold spot price shifts so frequently — it’s knowledge that sets successful investors apart. Let’s break down what drives this rapid-fire price action, and more importantly, what it means for […]

ECB’s Steady 2% Rate Prompts Banks to Scrap September Cut Forecasts

Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas now expect no further ECB rate cuts in 2025 after the central bank held its deposit rate at 2%. Both banks say the easing cycle is over—BNP even forecasts the next move will be a hike in Q4 2026—citing a resilient Euro-area economy and the likelihood of a U.S.–EU tariff deal. Other lenders, including HSBC and J.P. Morgan, have likewise pushed their first anticipated cut into late 2025 or beyond.

Trump Tours $2.5 Billion Fed Renovation, Presses Powell on Rates

President Trump toured the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation site with Chair Jerome Powell, sparring over whether the cost has risen to $3.1 billion (Powell said that figure included a third building completed earlier). Trump used the visit to press for lower interest rates, but Powell defended the Fed’s independence. The renovations—covering the Eccles and East buildings—started in 2022 and are due in 2027, with security upgrades a major driver of cost.

Stronger Jobs Data, Rising Yields Weigh on Gold

On Friday, spot gold eased to $3,357.25 an ounce (–0.3%) after U.S. jobless claims fell for the sixth consecutive week—the longest run of declines since 2022—reinforcing views that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. Treasury yields climbed, and swap markets trimmed their rate-cut forecasts to fewer than two this year, with October now seen as the most likely starting point. President Trump’s easing criticism of Fed Chair Powell boosted the dollar, making gold more expensive abroad. Despite this pullback, gold remains up about 25% year-to-date, buoyed by trade-war and geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold Prices Cushion Newmont’s Production Dip, Boost Q2 Profit

Newmont Mining — the world’s largest gold producer — posted adjusted Q2 earnings of $1.43 per share—beating the $1.18 consensus—as soaring gold prices offset an 8% drop in production to 1.48 million ounces. With bullion averaging $3,220/oz (up 12% QoQ and 40% YoY) and realized prices near $3,320/oz, higher revenues more than covered a small rise in all-in-sustaining costs to $1,593/oz. The miner has also trimmed debt by selling non-core assets, and is managing an incident where three workers remain trapped underground at one of its Canadian sites.ada to pay down debt after its blockbuster Newcrest acquisition.

Gold Retreats on Trade Optimism, but Dollar and Fed Cuts Offer Support

“Renewed hopes for a U.S.–EU trade deal (potentially setting a 15% tariff with exemptions) alongside progress on U.S.–Japan talks have lifted stock markets and dented gold’s appeal as a refuge. On Friday, gold futures slipped to $3,356.10/oz and spot prices to $3,360.13/oz. OANDA’s Kelvin Wong attributes part of the pullback to profit-taking by short-term bulls. Despite the dip, gold remains buoyed by a weakening dollar and the market’s expectation that the Fed will eventually cut rates—possibly as soon as September. Adding to the drama, President Trump’s surprise visit to the Fed this afternoon injects fresh uncertainty into the policy outlook. […]

India Widens Gold Discounts to $15/Oz Amid Sluggish Buying

“This week, Asian physical gold markets saw muted buying as higher prices dampened sentiment and pushed dealers to offer steeper discounts. In India—the world’s largest consumer—jewellers quoted up to $15/oz off official domestic rates (which include a 6% import duty and 3% sales tax), up from a $10/oz discount last week. Retail demand remained negligible, with many shops postponing new orders amid uncertainty. In China, gold dealers vacillated between a $5/oz discount and a $4/oz premium over international benchmarks, while customs data revealed imports have declined for a second consecutive month. Hong Kong’s premium settled between zero and $1.50/oz, Singapore’s […]