OPEC+ Production Surge Sends Oil Down 1.2% Despite Russia Sanctions Threat

Oil prices fell over 1% Monday after OPEC+ confirmed it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, continuing its strategy to regain market share. Brent crude dropped to $68.82 and WTI to $66.51 per barrel. The move reverses OPEC+’s previous cuts of 2.5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, markets remain nervous about President Trump’s threat of 100% secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers, which could impact 1.7 million barrels per day of supply, though India has indicated it will continue purchasing Russian crude despite the warnings.

Fed Governor Resignation Opens Door for Trump Amid Rate Cut Battle with Powell

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s unexpected resignation on Friday gives President Trump an immediate opportunity to influence Fed policy and potentially accelerate his selection of the next Fed chair. The resignation comes amid intense White House pressure on the central bank, with Trump calling current Fed Chair Jerome Powell “TOO ANGRY, TOO STUPID, & TOO POLITICAL” for refusing to cut interest rates. While Trump can now appoint a replacement who favors lower rates, one additional vote is unlikely to sway Fed policy, as this week’s 9-2 vote to keep rates unchanged shows the challenge of shifting the committee’s stance.

Dollar Stabilizes After Friday’s Jobs Data Shock Triggers 90% Fed Cut Odds

The US dollar stabilized Monday after Friday’s sharp decline triggered by weak jobs data and political turmoil. July employment figures showed only 73,000 jobs added with massive downward revisions of 258,000 for prior months, while President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner added to market uncertainty. The dollar had plunged over 2% against the yen and 1.5% against the euro Friday, with markets now pricing a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc weakened after Trump imposed high tariffs on Swiss imports.

How Switzerland’s Tiny Gold Refining Industry Triggered Major US Trade Tensions

Switzerland’s massive gold refining industry has become a key factor in US-Swiss trade relations after President Trump imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss imports. The country processes billions in gold annually, with bullion exports to the US reaching over $36 billion in Q1 2024—representing two-thirds of Switzerland’s trade surplus with America. Despite handling vast sums, Swiss refiners only capture a few dollars per ounce for recasting gold bars. While gold is now exempt from the tariffs, the precious metal’s flows continue to significantly impact trade balance calculations between the two nations.

Gold Takes a Breather at $3,357 After Friday’s Rally, But Bulls Eye $3,500 Target

Gold prices dipped slightly on Monday after last week’s strong rally, falling 0.2% to $3,356.91 per ounce. The decline came as U.S. Treasury yields rose and investors took profits following Friday’s 2% surge. Despite the pullback, market sentiment remains bullish due to weak U.S. jobs data that increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Investment bank Citi raised its three-month gold price target to $3,500 per ounce, citing concerns about U.S. economic growth.