Gold Is Flat. Silver Is Down 2.3%. The Ratio Just Told You What to Watch Tomorrow.

Published: 08-11-2026, 11:23 am

Yesterday, silver outperformed gold and the ratio compressed to 66.5. Today, that move reversed: silver is down 2.3%, gold is essentially flat, and the ratio has widened back to 67.5. Five developments explain the session. The common thread is that tomorrow’s July CPI report will determine whether any of them hold.

Why Did the Gold-Silver Ratio Widen to 67.5 Today?

Silver opened above $66 — its highest since June — then reversed sharply. By early afternoon it had shed 2.3% and the gold-silver ratio had widened from yesterday’s 66.5 to 67.5, a full point in one session. Gold touched $4,435 intraday and gave it back, ending essentially flat.

Direction is the signal. A ratio of 67.5 already sits above the 50-year historical average of roughly 65, meaning silver is historically cheap relative to gold. When silver underperforms gold ahead of an inflation print, the market is pricing in a Fed hike — which lifts real yields and penalizes silver more than gold. Silver carries industrial demand that gold does not; a rate-hike scenario softens that component. Gold, as the purer monetary metal, holds better.

Tomorrow’s CPI is the binary: a soft print narrows the ratio; a hot print extends it.

The Edge Every Investor Needs Smarter precious metals investing starts here. The Nuggets Newsletter brings you essential market insights, Fed updates, global trends, educational videos, and much more.

What Does the Barrick-Newmont $1.95 Billion Settlement Mean for Gold Investors?

Barrick Mining reached a $1.95 billion cash settlement with Newmont on Monday over the Fourmile deposit and Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. Newmont consented to Barrick’s planned North American IPO, which Barrick targets for completion by year-end 2026. Q2 net earnings reached $1.22 billion ($0.73 per share, up 55% year-on-year), though higher fuel costs and a retroactive tax penalty in Mali meant adjusted EPS of $0.82 narrowly missed the $0.83 analyst consensus.

The market did not celebrate. Barrick shares fell as much as 9% on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Bloomberg Intelligence put the implied Fourmile valuation at roughly $325 per ounce — terms that, in their assessment, “arguably favor Newmont.”

The dynamic is instructive: miners trade at a discount to gold because they carry operational and jurisdictional risk the metal itself does not. Physical gold eliminates that layer.

Are More People Buying Physical Silver Even as the Price Falls?

The most recent published Perth Mint data shows silver product sales at 293,732 ounces in June 2026, their lowest level of the year; July figures are not yet released. That context matters: buyers were stepping in as silver prices slid well below January’s record of $121.62 per ounce — choosing physical metal over momentum plays.

The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, with a 46.3 million ounce shortfall. Since 2021, the cumulative draw on above-ground stocks has reached 762 million ounces — a gap mine supply cannot close quickly, since new projects take seven to fifteen years to reach production.

Physical demand rising as the paper price falls is not a contradiction. When spot silver drops, buyers who have been waiting step in. The structural deficit does not adjust to the price on the screen.

Is China Still Buying Gold — and by How Much?

China’s central bank added approximately 19.9 metric tonnes (640,000 troy ounces) to its gold reserves in July — the largest single-month purchase since October 2023 — extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months. Total reserves hit a record 2,366 tonnes.

The pace is accelerating: roughly 5 tonnes in March, 10 in May, 15 in June, nearly 20 in July. Gold sat well below its January peak of $5,589.38 throughout. The PBoC is buying allocation, not momentum. Despite the record total, gold still represents less than 10% of China’s overall reserve portfolio, leaving significant room to accumulate.

A second layer: Chinese domestic gold ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive sessions of inflows — the longest streak since March — drawing in more than $1.2 billion as equity market volatility pushes institutional capital toward alternatives.

What Could Tomorrow’s CPI Report Do to Gold and Silver Prices?

July Consumer Price Index data prints Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. CME FedWatch currently puts the probability of a September rate hike at roughly 46%, with a hold near 54%. That near-even split gives the CPI report maximum power to move markets in either direction.

A soft print — energy components cooling despite oil near $82 — eases the hike case, pulls Treasury yields lower, and opens the runway toward $4,500 for gold. Silver would likely recover more than gold, narrowing the ratio.

A hot print — Iran-driven oil costs showing up in the energy subcomponent — strengthens the hike case and pressures both metals. The ratio would extend further as silver’s industrial sensitivity becomes a liability. The 10-year Treasury yield has already climbed back toward 4.6% today, which is partly why gold surrendered its $4,435 intraday high.

SOURCES
1. Bloomberg — Strait of Hormuz: What Have Iran, US Said as Efforts to Restore Traffic Stall
2. Mining Weekly — Barrick says Newmont deal clears path for North American IPO
3. Mining.com — Barrick names Bock to lead overseas arm ahead of split
4. Barrick Mining / GlobeNewswire — Barrick Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
5. Perth Mint — Gold and silver finish FY25/26 well ahead despite late pullback (June 2026 sales data)
6. Bloomberg — China’s Central Bank Adds 20 Tons to Gold Reserves in July
7. Reuters / Kitco — Gold steadies after scaling two-month high; markets await inflation data
8. Silver Institute — World Silver Survey 2026
9. World Gold Council — Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026
10. GoldSilver — Live Gold and Silver Spot Prices
11. CME Group — FedWatch Tool, September 2026 Rate Probability

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.  

You May Also Like: 

• Gold Slipped at the Open. China Bought the Dip. Again.
• Why Is Silver Outperforming Gold Today? The Dual-Engine Mechanism Explained.
• Trump Just Said the US Is Only ‘Semi-Negotiating’ With Iran. That One Word Changes Everything for Gold.
• Gold Opened at Its Highest Level Since June. Five Things Are Keeping It From Going Higher.
• Gold Had Its Best Week Since January. Wednesday’s CPI Could Take It Back.
• Gold Just Climbed to a 7-Week High. One Number Changed Everything.