Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 10-14-2026, 01:49 pm | Updated: 10-14-2026, 01:50 pm
Ronnie Stoeferle believes gold could reach $8,900 by 2030; but he also thinks prices could fall further before the next major rally.
In a GoldSilver interview recorded October 7, Stoeferle explained why his long-term forecast remains intact and why gold’s current correction may not be over. That distinction matters. A bullish long-term forecast does not mean investors should expect an uninterrupted climb.
Why Does Stoeferle Believe Gold Could Reach $8,900 by 2030?
Stoeferle says Incrementum developed its ambitious gold forecasts in 2020. At the time, even its lower $4,800 target attracted skepticism. Today, he maintains that $8,900 remains realistic.
He estimates reaching that level would require approximately 19.7% annualized growth from his reference point. However, the calculation depends on the starting price and time period.
More importantly, Stoeferle believes investors should reconsider how they value gold.
He distinguishes an ordinary gold market cycle from a broader monetary cycle. In the latter, gold’s value takes on a different meaning.
Instead of focusing solely on dollar prices, he examines gold relative to monetary aggregates and government debt. By those measures, he argues, gold still appears relatively inexpensive. In fact, he suggests $8,900 could bring some historical valuation ratios back toward their long-term medians.
The implication is significant. Gold’s next major advance could reflect monetary changes rather than ordinary investment demand alone.
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Has Gold Already Bottomed, or Could Prices Fall Further?
Stoeferle expects more downside before the next sustained advance.
He reveals that Incrementum’s gold price model shifted to a defensive stance during spring 2026. Consequently, his funds have adopted a more cautious approach.
His reasoning starts with gold’s remarkable previous gains. After such a strong advance, a period of consolidation would not surprise him.
Stoeferle compares the situation to climbing a mountain. Sometimes, reaching the summit requires a pause to regain strength.
He sees several immediate obstacles: disruption in Dubai affecting an important gold trading center, strong Asian equity markets competing with demand for gold, and rising long-term bond yields.
Still, he does not interpret these pressures as evidence that gold’s long-term outlook has collapsed. Instead, he sees a possible pause before another major upward move.
What Could Trigger Gold’s Next Major Rally?
Stoeferle believes the Federal Reserve may eventually face a difficult turning point.
He suggests another one or two rate increases could occur before further tightening becomes difficult. In his view, recognition of that constraint could help trigger gold’s next major advance.
However, monetary policy is only part of his argument.
Stoeferle also expects governments to favor conditions that produce deeply negative real interest rates. Real rates reflect the return investors earn after accounting for inflation. When inflation exceeds nominal returns, purchasing power declines.
Consequently, investors may become more interested in assets that do not depend on fixed interest payments. Stoeferle believes gold could benefit from this environment.
He also highlights sustained central bank demand, particularly among emerging economies.
These buyers, he argues, often approach gold differently from Western investors. Rather than responding primarily to short-term price movements, they may focus on longer-term monetary considerations.
Together, these forces help explain his bullish long-term outlook, despite his immediate caution.
What Does His Forecast Mean for Gold and Silver Investors?
Stoeferle separates precious metals exposure into two distinct categories.
The first is safe-haven gold. This includes physical gold held as long-term monetary insurance. In his framework, investors should not attempt to time this allocation aggressively.
The second category is performance gold. It includes silver and mining shares, which he believes require more active management.
Importantly, Stoeferle expects gold to lead the next major precious metals advance.
He describes silver as a more volatile counterpart to gold. Therefore, he does not expect a sustained silver breakout without a corresponding move in gold.
His broader discussion also challenges conventional portfolio allocations.
Rather than relying heavily on bonds, he favors greater exposure to hard assets within his proposed framework.
However, he acknowledges that suitable allocations are subjective.
The central lesson: A long-term bullish forecast does not eliminate short-term risk.
Gold could move toward $8,900 by 2030 and still experience meaningful corrections along the way.
For investors, understanding the difference between long-term monetary insurance and actively managed exposure is essential.
Watch the Full Ronnie Stoeferle Interview
What might signal the end of gold’s correction? How does Stoeferle divide his portfolio between physical gold, silver, mining stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin?
And why does he believe the next major gold rally could begin when the Federal Reserve reaches its limits?
Watch the complete GoldSilver interview for his detailed allocation framework, monetary outlook, and expectations for silver.
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1. GoldSilver — Ronnie Stoeferle Interview: Gold to $8,900 by 2030 (Recorded October 7, 2026)
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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