US May be on Brink of Massive Gold Revaluation  

Published: 10-12-2026, 12:48 pm

Ronnie Stoeferle used to rate the odds of a US gold revaluation at 10 to 15 percent. He now says the odds sit above 50 percent. That is the headline from his latest conversation on GoldSilver. It marks one of the sharpest probability shifts a well-known gold analyst has voiced in years. 

Stoeferle is Managing Partner at Incrementum AG. He co-authors the annual In Gold We Trust report. He sat down with Maggie Lake on October 7, 2026. Their conversation goes deep on bond markets, Treasury politics, and what a revaluation would actually require. The full interview is embedded below, and it covers specifics this article only sketches. 

What Changed Stoeferle’s Mind on Gold Revaluation? 

Sovereign bond markets are under real strain. Yields have moved sharply in the United States, France, Germany, and Japan. Stoeferle calls this a headwind for gold today. He expects it to flip into a tailwind soon. 

His reasoning centers on trust, not just yields. Governments across every major industrialized economy are running large fiscal deficits. Bond buyers are starting to question those deficits. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already stepped into the yen market this year. He has also stepped into the bond market to calm conditions. Stoeferle reads that intervention as preparation; he expects something larger before the midterm elections. 

The Knowledge That Changes Everything

2 Free Guides

Two essential guides — yours free. Understand why gold matters and why fiat currencies always fail.

Why Does the US Still Value Its Gold at $42.22 an Ounce? 

Here is the mechanism behind the number. The United States holds roughly 261.5 million ounces of gold. Federal accounting still books it at $42.22 an ounce. Congress set that price in 1973 and never updated it. At the statutory price, the stockpile is worth about $11 billion on paper. 

Gold trades near $4,166 an ounce as of this writing. Multiply that out, and the market value of the same gold tops $1 trillion. The gap between the book entry and the market reality is the number Stoeferle keeps coming back to. 

This would not be the first time a country revalued their gold, and we’ve walked through the mechanics of a US gold revaluation in more depth elsewhere. A Federal Reserve research note from 2025 examined five countries that have revalued gold reserves over the past 30 years. That list includes Italy in 2002 and South Africa in 2024 [Federal Reserve, FEDS Notes, Aug. 2025]. The same paper estimated that revaluing US gold at market prices would yield proceeds worth roughly 3 percent of GDP [Federal Reserve, FEDS Notes, Aug. 2025]. Treasury Secretary Bessent said something similar in February 2025. He stated his department would “monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet for the American people” within 12 months [South China Morning Post]. Stoeferle also points to Bessent’s stated wish for a new “Bretton Woods moment.” He treats both remarks as data points pointing toward revaluation. 

Bessent himself tells a more cautious story. Days after that February 2025 remark, he told Bloomberg that revaluing US gold reserves is “not what I had in mind,” and he repeated that denial as recently as July 2026 [Bloomberg]. Stoeferle’s view is that any real move would be well telegraphed long before an announcement, which is one reason he does not treat a public denial today as the final word. 

Could a Revaluation Backfire Before the Midterms? 

Stoeferle does not treat this as a sure thing. A revaluation announced during a period of low trust carries real risk. It could read as desperation rather than a fix. That risk only grows with midterm elections approaching. His counterpoint is timing. He expects any move to be well telegraphed through advisors and officials first. A well-telegraphed move is harder to read as a surprise, and that would soften the political risk. The video goes further into who those advisors are and what their public actions already suggest. 

Is This a Normal Gold Cycle, or Something Bigger? 

Stoeferle poses a bigger question too. Does today’s gold market behave like a normal cycle, or like a re-monetization cycle? Central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold a year in 2022, 2023, and 2024. That pace has since cooled to 863 tons in 2025, with a similar amount expected in 2026 [World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends, Full Year 2025]. Even at that slower pace, buying still runs well above the 473-ton yearly average central banks kept from 2010 through 2021, and we’ve covered why central banks keep buying gold in 2026 in a separate deep dive. A wave of countries has also repatriated gold held abroad back onto home soil. Neither pattern fits a normal cycle, in Stoeferle’s view. 

Viewed through conventional valuation, gold can look expensive after its recent run. Stoeferle prefers a different lens: the growth of global monetary aggregates. Measured that way, he argues gold remains inexpensive. That gap between the mainstream read and the monetary-history read sits at the core of his thesis. It also explains why a revaluation conversation is happening at all. Officials rarely propose revaluing an asset they expect to lose relevance. 

Watch the Full Conversation 

This article covers the headline shift and the mechanics behind it. The interview itself goes much further. Stoeferle lays out the specific sequence he expects a revaluation to follow. He also names the officials and advisors shaping the conversation inside Washington. He gives his direct answer on whether this looks more like a genius fix or an act of desperation. Watch the full conversation here.

SOURCES
1. Federal Reserve — Official Reserve Revaluations: The International Experience
2. South China Morning Post — Trump Is Trying to Pull the Dollar Carpet From Under the Monetary System
3. Bloomberg — Gold Pares Gains as Bessent Plays Down Revaluing US Reserves
4. World Gold Council — Gold Demand Trends, Full Year 2025: Central Banks
5. GoldSilver — Revaluation Odds Now Above 50% | Ronnie Stoeferle

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

You May Also Like:     

• Why Gold Ignored the Fed’s Fastest Rate Hikes in 40 Years
• The $145 Trillion Market That Moves Gold More Than the Fed
• A 6% Yield Could Make or Break Gold’s Rally
• Owning Gold Was a Crime When It Went Up 5x
• Jim Rickards Read the Exchange Rule Books. One Rule Decides Whether You Get the Gold.
• Why Jim Rickards Thinks $10,000 Gold Could Arrive by Mid-2027
• 1980’s Misery Index Hit 22. Here’s Where We Actually Stand Today.
• Gold Doesn’t Need a Rate Cut. It Needs What the Treasury Is Already Doing.
• Silver Broke $50 After 45 Years. It Still Isn’t the Real Record.