Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Financial markets have significantly reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with investors now pricing in an 83% chance of no changes through July—up from just 40% a month ago.
The shift follows May’s surprisingly robust job growth report, which suggests the economy doesn’t urgently need monetary stimulus. The Fed has maintained “restrictive” interest rates since January, keeping borrowing costs high to combat inflation concerns linked to President Trump’s tariff policies.
However, economists remain divided on the Fed’s future path. Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts three rate cuts by year-end, citing concerns about downward revisions to jobs data and potential tariff-induced unemployment.
In contrast, Deutsche Bank expects only one cut in December, noting that Fed officials’ recent speeches have taken a more inflation-focused “hawkish” tone. This uncertainty reflects the Fed’s challenge in navigating between supporting employment and controlling inflation in an unpredictable trade environment.
