ETF Inflows Drive Gold Demand to Highest First-Half Levels Since 2020

Gold extended its gains following the release of US inflation data that aligned with market expectations, reinforcing beliefs that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in their upcoming meeting. While underlying inflation rose to its strongest level since the beginning of the year, subdued goods prices helped ease concerns about tariff-related pressures on the economy. The precious metal, which doesn’t pay interest and typically performs well in lower rate environments, has climbed approximately 28% year-to-date. Market participants remain watchful for clarity on whether gold bar imports will face tariffs, after confusion last week when the US Customs and Border

Switzerland’s precious metals lobby is urging U.S. President Donald Trump to make a formal commitment that gold will remain tariff-free. While Trump’s recent statement against imposing gold tariffs boosted market confidence, the Swiss association ASFCMP says only a binding decision will provide the certainty needed for global trade stability.

Gold prices bounced around as traders reacted to new US inflation data and uncertainty about future interest rates. Inflation for goods stayed mild in July, but core inflation rose at the fastest pace this year. Many still expect the Fed to cut rates in September, which could be good news for gold. Markets were also watching for clarity on whether US tariffs would hit gold imports. President Trump suggested there won’t be a levy, but the industry wants a formal decision. Gold is up more than 27% so far this year, supported by safe-haven buying amid global tensions.

Trading.com CEO Peter McGuire expects gold and silver to surge in the second half of 2025, with gold possibly reaching $3,600–$4,000 and silver exceeding $40. He cites a weakening US dollar, an anticipated US rate cut, and strong investor demand as key drivers. While gold briefly corrected after US President Trump confirmed no tariffs on precious metals, McGuire believes Q3 and Q4 will be bullish for bullion, with silver showing greater percentage gains. He also predicts crude oil prices will decline in Q4 due to reduced geopolitical tensions, abundant supply, and falling inflation — factors that could lower energy costs

Uncertainty looms over the gold market as Washington considers tariffs on imported gold bullion bars, a move that has already rattled prices and disrupted global trade. Barrick Mining CEO Mark Bristow says the industry awaits official clarification, but downplays potential negative effects, noting miners could benefit if prices rise. Barrick’s Q2 earnings exceeded forecasts, supported by higher gold prices, even as production fell due to halted Mali operations amid a dispute with the military government. The company has no plans to sell its Loulo-Gounkoto mine despite losing control and incurring a $1.03 billion write-down.