100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Gold prices dropped by as much as 2.1% after the US and China announced upcoming trade talks in Switzerland, reducing demand for safe-haven investments. This decline follows a nearly 6% surge over the previous two days. Despite escalating military tensions between India and Pakistan, investors focused more on the potential easing of global trade tensions. Gold has increased almost 30% this year, reaching a record high above $3,500 in April. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.

Two major gold mining companies, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields, have decided to pause talks about combining their neighboring mines in Ghana. The proposed joint venture would have created a massive operation producing 900,000 ounces of gold annually in its first five years. While both companies still consider the merger “compelling,” they’ve chosen to refocus on their individual operations for now. The joint venture would have given Gold Fields 60% ownership, AngloGold 30%, and the Ghanaian government 10%.

Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its optimistic forecast for gold, maintaining a structural bullish view on the precious metal. The investment bank predicts gold will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 in its base case scenario, with further growth to $4,000 by mid-2026. Goldman’s analysis indicates that a recession could accelerate ETF inflows and drive prices even higher to $3,880. More dramatically, extreme risk events such as challenges to Federal Reserve independence or shifts in U.S. reserve policy could potentially catapult gold prices to $4,500 by year-end 2025.