100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods have slashed cargo shipments by 60% since early April. A supply shock looms by mid-May when companies must restock inventories, with retailers warning of empty shelves and higher prices. Economists predict “Covid-like” shortages and significant layoffs across multiple sectors. The timing is critical as suppliers prepare for back-to-school and holiday shopping. Businesses describe being “paralyzed” with paused orders. The shipping industry’s reduced capacity means any trade resumption would overwhelm logistics networks, creating pandemic-like bottlenecks. Ship tracking shows 40% fewer vessels from China to the US, carrying a third fewer containers. US importers are pivoting

In a recent Opinion piece on MarketWatch, columnist Stephen Roach argues that Trump’s “America First” protectionism is leading the US toward prolonged stagflation – a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation. Unlike the temporary supply chain disruptions during COVID-19, Trump’s trade policies represent a permanent decoupling from global trade networks, especially with China and potentially even with North American partners. This reversal of supply chain efficiencies could eliminate the 0.5 percentage point reduction in inflation that the US has enjoyed annually over the past decade. Reshoring manufacturing to the US won’t be quick or easy, as production platforms