100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Despite speculative traders reducing their net long positions by 55% since September to a 14-month low, gold has surged nearly 28% this year, already surpassing many analyst’s 2025 expectations. Two key trends are emerging: gold makes its biggest gains during non-US trading hours while struggling during US pit hours, and while Western ETFs have seen a 1 million ounce decline recently, Chinese ETFs have already surpassed their 2024 inflow totals. Meanwhile, silver struggles to match gold’s performance, with the gold-to-silver ratio remaining above 100, as silver faces headwinds from its industrial exposure and a slowdown in Chinese solar production.

China’s central bank has announced multiple measures to counter the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, including cutting interest rates and reducing bank reserve requirements. These moves aim to free up approximately $137.6 billion for lending. The announcement comes as both countries prepare for trade talks and as President Trump’s high tariffs—up to 145% on most Chinese products—begin affecting China’s export-driven economy. In response, China has imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on American goods. Financial markets responded positively but cautiously to this news.

The US is working on a critical minerals deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, following a model similar to its recent Ukraine agreement. The negotiations aim to end decades of conflict in eastern Congo, where valuable minerals like tin, tungsten, and coltan are mined. The Rwandan-backed M23 rebels recently advanced through the region, threatening operations at the Bisie tin mine – the world’s fourth-largest tin producer. As peace talks progress, the parties hope to establish bilateral minerals agreements that could provide the US with more immediate access to critical minerals than the Ukraine deal.