Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News

May’s Consumer Price Index report is expected to show the first real impact of import tariffs on American shoppers. While overall inflation stayed modest at 0.2% monthly growth, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is projected to jump 0.3% – the biggest increase in four months. The timing tells the story: retailers had been selling pre-tariff inventory through April, but May marks when those cheaper goods ran out. Major retailers like Walmart have already announced price hikes, with economists warning this is just the beginning of tariff-driven inflation that could last through year-end. The data comes as the Bureau of...

The U.S. economy faces mixed signals about a potential 2025 recession. Warning signs include a 0.2% GDP contraction in Q1 2025, slowing consumer spending, and President Trump’s tariff policies driving inflation. The unemployment rate is projected to rise above natural levels through 2027, while 83% of CEOs expect a recession within 18 months. The yield curve has been inverted since July 2022, traditionally a recession predictor. However, positive indicators persist. Unemployment remains relatively low at 4.2%, retail sales jumped 1.4% in March, and the Federal Reserve maintains steady interest rates. Some economists suggest we’re experiencing a “vibecession” – where negative...

Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent assurance that the U.S. will “never” default on its debt, history tells a different story. The U.S. has actually failed to meet its financial obligations several times since 1789, including during the War of 1812, the Civil War, and the 1933 gold clause abrogation under FDR. With U.S. debt-to-GDP now above 120% and rising, concerns about long-term default risk are growing. Recent Treasury bond market behavior reflects this anxiety, with 30-year yields jumping sharply in spring 2025. While default isn’t imminent, the article warns that dismissing this possibility entirely is no longer prudent.

According to a new ECB report, the dollar’s role as the dominant global reserve currency is steadily eroding, falling from 68% to 58% over the past decade. In 2024 alone, it lost 2 percentage points of market share. However, the euro has struggled to capitalize on this shift, maintaining its roughly 20% share while smaller currencies and gold have been the primary beneficiaries. Central banks worldwide are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against uncertainty, purchasing over 1,000 metric tons in 2024—double the previous decade’s average. This surge reflects growing concerns about geopolitical risks and the need for portfolio...

US core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose just 0.1% in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of lower-than-expected increases. This suggests businesses aren’t passing on higher tariff costs to consumers. Key points: – Annual core inflation stands at 2.8% – Goods prices remained flat, with declines in cars and clothing – Service prices rose modestly (0.2%), with drops in airfares and hotels – Markets reacted positively: Treasury bonds rallied, the dollar fell, and stocks rose – Traders now see a 75% chance the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September The weaker inflation data strengthens the case for...

Following recent diplomatic tensions, US and Chinese officials met in London to establish what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called “a framework to implement the Geneva consensus” from last month’s meeting. The two-day talks aimed to eliminate negativity and create a path forward for broader negotiations. The emerging agreement appears to involve a quid pro quo: China would speed up shipments of rare earth metals crucial for global supply chains, while the US would relax some export restrictions on semiconductors. While the immediate focus is on defusing current trade frictions, both sides expressed hope for future discussions on larger issues like...

The US and China have reached an agreement on a framework to resume trade negotiations after recent disputes threatened to derail talks. Following two days of meetings in London, senior negotiators from both countries found a way forward on issues related to mineral and technology exports. While the fundamental issue of China’s trade surplus with the US remains unresolved, both sides expressed optimism about moving past recent tensions. The breakthrough followed a phone call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, and Asian stock markets responded positively to the news.

Gold strengthened on Wednesday, gaining 0.4% to reach $3,336.20 per ounce, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid continuing uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. While officials from both countries announced progress on a framework to revive their trade truce and eliminate China’s rare earth export restrictions, the lack of concrete resolution to longstanding trade disputes kept markets cautious. The ongoing trade tensions, which began with tit-for-tat tariffs in April, continue to support gold prices. Investors are also closely watching the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report for insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with most economists expecting rates to...

Gold demonstrated resilience by advancing to $3,340.83 per ounce even after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and China’s trade representative Li Chenggang announced a framework agreement to ease trade tensions following London talks. While such diplomatic progress typically weakens demand for safe-haven assets like gold, the metal’s continued strength suggests investors remain skeptical and are awaiting concrete developments. The precious metal has gained over 25% in 2024, driven by President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Central banks have emerged as significant buyers, seeking to reduce their exposure to US assets. Other precious metals also performed well, with...

Financial markets have significantly reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with investors now pricing in an 83% chance of no changes through July—up from just 40% a month ago. The shift follows May’s surprisingly robust job growth report, which suggests the economy doesn’t urgently need monetary stimulus. The Fed has maintained “restrictive” interest rates since January, keeping borrowing costs high to combat inflation concerns linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. However, economists remain divided on the Fed’s future path. Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts three rate cuts by year-end, citing concerns about downward revisions to jobs data and...