Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
Today’s gold and silver market news, curated from the best of GoldSilver's team and around the web. Everything precious metals investors need to know including updates on big price swings, macro analysis, and breaking stories. Check back often or subscribe to get the highlights in your inbox. Monitor live spot prices on our charts page.
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How a Potential Silver Squeeze Could Rewrite Market History
The silver market is poised for a potential historic short squeeze due to a combination of factors, including decades of price suppression by major banks, a significant disparity between paper and physical silver, declining mine production, and increasing industrial demand. As banks face potential losses on their short positions and physical supplies dwindle, the true value of silver may soon be revealed, potentially leading to a dramatic price surge and reshaping the precious metals landscape.
READ MORECurrency Markets Roiled as US Election Race Tightens
The US dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell as recent polls showed Kamala Harris gaining ground against Donald Trump in the presidential race. Investors had previously bet on a Trump victory, but are now adjusting their positions as the election appears too close to call. The Mexican peso and other currencies strengthened against the dollar as a result.
READ MORECrude Prices Climb as OPEC+ Holds Back and Iran-Israel Conflict Looms
The oil market experienced an uptick as OPEC+ postponed its December production increase and Middle East tensions intensified. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate both saw price increases, with the former reaching $74 per barrel. The decision to delay output hikes, combined with Iran's aggressive stance towards Israel, has created uncertainty in the market. This geopolitical instability is counterbalancing worries about oversupply and sluggish demand from China, leading to increased volatility in oil prices.
READ MOREMonetary Policy in the Balance as Voters Head to the Polls
While voters may not consider the Federal Reserve when casting their ballots on Tuesday, the next president's approach to Fed independence is a significant concern for economic experts. Former President Trump's history of pressuring the Fed and his campaign statements suggest he may seek more control over monetary policy if re-elected, in contrast to the Biden administration's more hands-off approach.
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Gold's Best Year Since the 1970s
As gold nears $2,800, several major catalysts signal this rally could be different from anything we've seen before.
READ MORETraders See Gold as a Best Bet as Close Election Looms
Gold prices are surging to record highs as investors seek a safe haven amid the uncertainty of the upcoming US election. The closely contested race has sparked concerns about potential market turmoil, driving demand for gold across a wide range of investors. Experts suggest that regardless of the election outcome, gold's rally may continue due to its appeal during times of geopolitical uncertainty and potential economic shifts.
READ MOREChinese Gold Jewelry Demand Rebounds in Q3
China's gold jewelry demand showed a quarter-on-quarter increase from July to September, despite high gold prices. The World Gold Council reports a 19% quarterly growth in the third quarter, although year-on-year consumption fell by 34%. The council anticipates a potential rebound in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal factors like wedding jewelry demand and the upcoming Spring Festival.
READ MOREMiddle East Tensions Fuel 2% Surge in Oil Prices Amid Iran-Israel Standoff
Oil prices have risen by 2% following reports that Iran is preparing to launch a retaliatory strike against Israel from Iraq in the coming days. This news has overshadowed the weekly decline in oil benchmarks, with Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude both showing significant increases. The ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, set against the backdrop of broader Middle East conflicts, continue to influence oil market dynamics, despite previous limited strikes having minimal impact on oil infrastructure.
READ MORESafe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold Ahead of Critical Economic Release
Gold prices have rebounded ahead of the release of crucial US employment data, as investors remain focused on the upcoming presidential election. The precious metal recovered from its largest single-day decline since July, with traders carefully monitoring the job market for insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. The uncertainty surrounding the closely contested US election has further bolstered gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to its overall positive performance this year despite fluctuations in response to economic indicators and geopolitical events.
READ MOREWeather and Strikes Disrupt Job Market: October Sees Minimal Growth
In October, the U.S. labor market experienced an unexpected dip, adding just 12,000 jobs compared to the previous month's 223,000. This sharp decline is primarily due to the effects of severe weather events and labor strikes, particularly at Boeing. While the job growth figure was surprisingly low, the stable 4.1% unemployment rate indicates that the overall labor market remains resilient despite these short-term disruptions.
READ MOREWorld Gold Council: Gold Demand Hits Q3 Record as Investors Turn to Safe Havens
The World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends report for Q3 2024 highlights a record-breaking quarter for gold demand, driven by strong investment flows and high prices. Total gold demand, including OTC investment, increased by 5% year-over-year to 1,313 tonnes, marking the highest third quarter on record. The value of demand surged by 35% to exceed $100 billion for the first time, reflecting the gold price reaching new record highs during the quarter. Key factors contributing to this growth include significant inflows into gold ETFs, continued central bank purchases, and robust OTC investment, which offset declines in jewelry consumption and bar and coin investment in some markets.
READ MOREFed's Inflation Target in Sight as PCE Index Nears 2%
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, showed a continued slowdown in September, with overall inflation falling to 2.1% year-over-year, nearly reaching the Fed's 2% target. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained stubbornly high at 2.7% annually, indicating that some price pressures persist beneath the surface.
READ MOREHomebuyers Face Tough Choices as Borrowing Costs Soar Once Again
The US housing market is facing renewed challenges as mortgage rates have surged in recent weeks, potentially dampening the momentum gained from a brief period of lower rates in September. This volatility in borrowing costs is causing uncertainty for homebuyers, who must now navigate a market with high interest rates and limited housing supply. Some buyers are adapting their strategies, hoping to find bargains amid reduced competition, while others are postponing their plans. The market's future remains uncertain, with upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and economic data influencing mortgage rates and buyer behavior.
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What Are the BRICS Nations Preparing For? Economic, Military & Strategic Power Analyzed
BRICS is making waves on the global stage, and in this eye-opening video, we explore the recent BRICS Summit’s key revelations
READ MOREMixed Signals: Inflation Eases Overall, but Core Prices Climb
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.3% in September, marking its largest monthly increase since April. This development suggests a potential slowdown in future interest rate cuts. Despite the uptick in core inflation, overall inflation fell to 2.1%, approaching the Fed's 2% target. Consumer spending grew by 0.4%, supported by wage increases, while the savings rate dropped to 4.6%. These economic indicators point to a resilient economy with persistent inflationary pressures, likely influencing the Fed's approach to monetary policy in the coming months.
READ MORETraders Anticipate Two Fed Rate Cuts as Price Pressures Ease
Traders are maintaining their expectations for two quarter-point interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, one in November and another in December. This outlook is supported by recent economic data showing easing inflation, with the Fed's preferred inflation measure dropping to 2.1% in September, closer to their 2% target.
READ MOREOil Prices Edge Up on Potential OPEC+ Output Delay
Oil prices have risen as OPEC+ contemplates postponing its planned December oil production increase. Sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions suggest the delay could last at least a month, citing concerns over soft oil demand and rising supply. This potential decision, which could be announced as early as next week, comes in response to market volatility and aims to stabilize oil prices. The news has contributed to a slight uptick in oil prices, with additional support coming from unexpected drawdowns in U.S. fuel inventories.
READ MOREExperts Weigh In: Presidential Policies and Their Potential Commodity Consequences
Capital Economics predicts that the U.S. election won't have an immediate major effect on commodities, but could shape oil and natural gas markets in the long run. A Trump victory might support more drilling and potentially lead to higher U.S. oil demand, while Harris would likely maintain current policies. Gold prices could benefit from a Trump presidency due to potential inflation and uncertainty. Overall, market fundamentals are expected to have a greater impact on commodity prices than the election result.
READ MORETech Giants Drive Unconventional Bull Market as Economy Defies Expectations
The current bull market is defying traditional patterns, with mega-cap stocks leading instead of small-caps. Despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, many U.S. corporations have seen their interest payment burdens decrease. Economic data suggests continuous expansion since the pandemic, with the Nasdaq Composite reaching new record highs. Experts describe this as an unusual market environment, characterized by a "soft landing" that is more of an ongoing process than a destination.
READ MOREUS Job Market Defies Odds: Private Sector Hiring Soars in October
ADP's latest report reveals a robust US labor market, with private payrolls increasing by 233,000 in October, exceeding all forecasts. The unexpected surge in hiring occurred despite regional challenges, indicating strong demand for workers across various industries, particularly in education, health services, trade, and transportation.
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