Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
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U.S. Consumer Debt Piles up to $17 Trillion
More, more, more. According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt climbed to $17.05 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of $2.9 trillion since Q4 2019, shortly before the pandemic hit.
READ MOREWhat Comes After the Debt Ceiling?
Most market participants are viewing a debt ceiling deal as bullish. While there may very well be a positive initial reaction, we expect a significant tightening of liquidity conditions in the coming months.
READ MOREContinuing to Get Straight the Facts About the American Economy: AIER
Let us hope that at least we Americans soon recover from our infatuation with government power.
READ MOREStill an Astonishing Labor Market: Very Tight or Getting Even Tighter in Some Sectors...
Powell is going to mention this with some frustration in his voice.
READ MOREBeige Book Shows US Economy Turning More Sluggish
The Fed's latest beige book released this afternoon was a boring affair, one signaling the US economy remained sluggish at best, and describing economic activity as "little changed overall in April and early May." Four Fed districts reported small increases in activity, six no change, and two slight to moderate declines. Expectations for future growth deteriorated a little...
READ MORELarge Specs Are Record Short Stocks
Leading into the weekend, where the debt ceiling had not been settled, markets were exhibiting very interesting positioning. To start, US Treasuries across the maturity spectrum were hugely out of favor. Net speculator positioning in options and futures were as short as they have every been. The charts below show the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year...
READ MOREWatch Yield Curve For When Stocks Begin To Price Recession Risk
US large-cap indices are currently diverging from recessionary leading economic data. However, a decisive steepening in the yield curve leaves growth stocks and therefore the overall index facing lower prices.
READ MOREThe Bankruptcy Caravan Is Now Arriving: Time to Pay for the Easy Money
This cluster of large bankruptcies happening in less than forty-eight hours is the most since 2008. Libby Cherry writes for Bloomberg (reprinted on Time): “Firms across every sector are struggling with higher interest costs—making it more challenging to refinance loans and bonds—while corporate executives are drawing more scrutiny from investors and creditors.”
READ MOREUS Mortgage Demand Drops 3.7%, Mortgage Purchase Demand Down -44%, Refi Demand Down -87%,
Under Biden, the US economy is a land of confusion. Under Biden’s Reign of Error, Mortgage Purchase Demand is down -44%, Refi Demand is down -87%, and Mortgage Rates are UP 106%.
READ MOREVisualizing The World's Aging Population From 1950 To 2100
As demographics continue to shift in the 21st century, the world’s aging population will continue to be a focal point for many global decision makers.
READ MOREThe Great Student Loan Nonpayment Boondoggle Is Over And Household Spending Is About To Collapse
In the small print detailing the end of the debt ceiling melodrama which, as we explained, is a farce as it boosts inflation-adjusted spending contrary to Republican promises, there was some actual news: the great student loan boondoggle is about to come to a screeching halt, after a three year "emergency pause" which redirected tens of billions in dollars away from mandatory student loan repayment to other forms of discretionary spending.
READ MOREHigher Unemployment Won't Stop Wages from Rising
The net result of these dynamics is official unemployment can soar but employers will still be scrambling to find qualified, willing employees.
READ MOREUS Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar Above Highest Estimate Even As Number Of Quits Tumble
For those following the recent sharp drop in job openings, or perhaps merely fascinated by the narrative that AI will cause a margin-busting corporate revolution as millions of mid-level employees are replaced by a cheap "bullshitting" AI algorithm, then today's latest bizarro JOLTS report will come as a shock. That's because after three months of sharp declines, the BLS reported that in April the number of job openings soared by 358K from an upward revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million, the biggest increase since Dec 2022...
READ MOREChicago PMI Unexpectedly Plummets, Longest 'Contraction' Streak Since Lehman
After the unexpected resurgence in April, Chicago PMI plunged in May from 48.6 to 40.4 (against expectations of 47.3). That is the ninth straight month below 50 (in contraction)...
READ MOREAmerica’s Faustian Pact With Runaway Debt Is Coming Due: Telegraph
The Republicans have capitulated on the US debt ceiling. This averts the risk of abrupt fiscal tightening in a slowing economy that has yet to digest the most aggressive monetary squeeze in over 40 years....
READ MOREFormer Treasury Secretary Summers Sees Higher Fed Interest Rates, Increased US Taxes
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers sees US interest rates headed higher in the short-run and US taxes rising significantly in the longer run as the world’s biggest economy comes to grips with a persistent inflation problem and burgeoning government debt.
READ MORERisks Lie Ahead for US Credit Standing After Tentative Debt Ceiling Deal
News of a debt ceiling agreement still leaves uncertainties on the U.S. credit outlook, analysts said, in addition to the immediate risk that Congress may not pass the proposed deal before the country runs out of cash.
READ MORECiti Strategist Says Tech Stock Rally Is Now at Risk of Fizzling Out
After a 31% surge in the US technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index this year, market strategists are at odds about whether investor positioning is getting crowded and if that could put the rally under pressure.
READ MOREShort Seller Jim Chanos Rolls His Eyes at AI Hype Over Market Valuations
"Wall Street is quite good at creating supply to meet demand," the famed short seller said in a dig at the ChatGPT-fueled mania around AI stocks.
READ MOREJust 5 Stocks Including Nvidia Account For 96% Of the S&P 500’s Gains This Year
Most likely, their valuations are already stretched beyond the max, and bound to snap back. And the ultimate example of the froth that's overtaken the Trillion-Dollar Club is the rise of Nvidia.
READ MORE