Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
Today’s gold and silver market news, curated from the best of GoldSilver's team and around the web. Everything precious metals investors need to know including updates on big price swings, macro analysis, and breaking stories. Check back often or subscribe to get the highlights in your inbox. Monitor live spot prices on our charts page.
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Investors Flock to Safe Havens After Trump Assassination Attempt
After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a rally, investors are turning to traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and gold. Bitcoin has also surged past $60,000. The attack is expected to increase market volatility and boost Trump's chances in the 2024 presidential election, especially given President Biden's poor performance in a recent debate. This could lead to a rise in "Trump trades," favoring assets like energy firms, private prisons, and credit card companies. Analysts predict an initial spike in the US dollar and bond yields, while tech and renewable energy stocks might suffer. Markets are on high alert for potential copycat attacks, and experts advise caution in reaction to immediate market movements.
READ MOREGold Holds Above $2,400, Eyes Third Consecutive Weekly Gain
Gold prices remained steady above $2,400 per ounce on Friday, poised for a third consecutive weekly gain. This stability comes as investors grow increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, following unexpected declines in U.S. consumer prices. Despite a hotter-than-expected producer price index report causing some profit-taking, the overall sentiment remains bullish. Markets are now pricing in a 96% chance of a rate cut in September, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. While gold and silver have shown strength, platinum and palladium are set for weekly declines, with long-term bearish outlooks due to declining autocatalyst demand.
READ MOREConsumer Sentiment Dips to 8-Month Low Despite Easing Inflation Expectations
U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped to an eight-month low in early July, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading. Despite expectations for easing inflation, consumers remain frustrated with persistently high prices, which are eroding living standards. The sentiment index fell to 66 from 68.2 in June, contrary to economists' predictions of a slight increase. While consumers' inflation expectations for the next year and the long term decreased slightly, nearly half of the respondents spontaneously expressed concerns about high prices impacting their quality of life. This decline in sentiment comes despite recent data showing cooling inflation, highlighting the ongoing impact of price pressures on consumer perceptions of the economy.
READ MOREBond Traders Eye Possibility of 50 Basis Point Fed Rate Cut After Inflation Data
Following softer-than-expected inflation data, bond traders are increasingly betting on the possibility of a larger-than-usual 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This shift is evident in the federal funds futures market, particularly in October contracts, which have seen record trading volumes. While these contracts already fully price in a standard quarter-point cut for the September 18 meeting, the increased buying at higher price levels suggests growing expectations for a more aggressive move. Swap contracts now indicate a full quarter-point cut in September and a total of 60 basis points of easing by year-end, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment regarding the Fed's monetary policy trajectory.
READ MORELBMA and WGC Push for Gold's Upgrade to HQLA Status Under Basel III
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and World Gold Council (WGC) are advocating for gold to be reclassified as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) under Basel III regulations. In a recent meeting with the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), they presented data and research supporting this change, which could enhance market stability, improve liquidity, and boost confidence in the financial system. The BIS representatives provided positive feedback and guidance on additional information needed to progress the reclassification. This move could significantly benefit financial institutions and the broader economy by strengthening gold's role in the global financial system.
READ MOREVanEck CEO Bullish on Bitcoin and Gold Amid Global Economic Shifts
VanEck CEO Jan van Eck expresses strong bullish sentiment towards both Bitcoin and gold, citing various market dynamics and global economic factors. Despite short-term pressures on Bitcoin, including government selling and liquidations, he maintains a positive long-term outlook, noting continued retail investor interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs. For gold, van Eck points to record highs driven by geopolitical tensions and increased central bank purchases. He highlights the declining appeal of traditional safe-haven currencies, making both gold and Bitcoin attractive alternatives. Looking ahead, van Eck anticipates potential fiscal challenges in 2025, particularly regarding U.S. Social Security, and expects continued Federal Reserve easing policies to support both assets.
READ MOREFed's Daly: Cooling Inflation May Warrant One or Two Rate Cuts in 2024
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly has indicated that recent cooler inflation readings are encouraging, and she anticipates further easing in both price pressures and the labor market to justify interest rate cuts. While Daly sees it as likely that policy adjustments will be warranted, she remains uncertain about the exact timing. She suggests that one or two interest rate cuts this year, as projected in the June Fed policymaker forecasts, could be appropriate if inflation continues to cool, though progress may be uneven. Daly's comments reflect a cautious optimism about the economic outlook and a willingness to consider rate cuts in response to improving economic conditions.
READ MOREGold Nears Record High as Inflation Report Boosts Rate Cut Odds
The June 2024 inflation report, showing a decrease to 3% year-over-year, has significantly increased market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This data has led to a surge in rate cut bets, with the probability of a September cut rising to 91%. As a result, investors are flocking to interest-rate-sensitive assets, including Treasury bonds, low-yield currencies like the Japanese yen, and gold. The market reaction includes falling Treasury yields, a weakening U.S. dollar, and gold prices approaching all-time highs. This shift in sentiment suggests that investors are increasingly confident that the Fed's inflation target is within reach, potentially leading to multiple rate cuts by the end of the year.
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"You're Going To See Something More Devastating Than 2000 or 2008" - Mike Maloney
In this eye-opening video, Mike Maloney explores the troubling signs pointing towards an impending financial crisis that could surpass the devastation
READ MORESilver Soars 2% on 'Double Bottom' Breakout, Eyes YTD Highs
Silver prices have surged over 2%, breaking through key resistance levels and confirming a 'double bottom' chart pattern. This bullish momentum, fueled by weaker-than-expected US inflation data, has pushed the XAG/USD to $31.40, a six-week high. The breakout above the $30.73 neckline has opened the door for further gains, with potential targets at $31.75, $32.00, and the year-to-date high of $32.51. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this upward trend. However, key support levels at $31.00, $30.73, and $29.82/79 remain crucial for potential pullbacks. This price action has reignited discussions about potential Federal Reserve monetary policy easing.
READ MOREFed Chair Powell: Labor Market 'Fully Back in Balance'
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has declared that the U.S. labor market has achieved balance, marking a significant shift from the past three years when a tight job market was cited as a reason for maintaining high interest rates. This change in stance suggests that the Fed no longer views the labor market as a primary source of inflationary pressure. The cooling job market, evidenced by more concentrated hiring in specific sectors like healthcare and government, may now support the case for potential interest rate cuts in the near future. This development indicates that the Fed is reassessing its policy approach, considering both inflation risks and the potential negative impacts of prolonged high rates on the economy.
READ MOREYen keeps markets on edge, data points to BOJ intervention
The yen steadied on Friday, a day after the Bank of Japan likely intervened to prop up the currency, on the coat-tails of an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer prices that fuelled the largest drop in the dollar since May. Daily operations data from the BOJ on Friday suggested the central bank had spent between 3.37-3.57 trillion yen ($21.18-22 billion) on buying the yen on Thursday, less than three months after its last foray into the market. Tokyo's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, said on Friday authorities will take action as needed in the foreign exchange market, but declined to comment on if authorities had intervened.
READ MORECheap Trips to Costly Getaways: The Potential Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on U.S. Travelers
The potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, potentially making future international travel more expensive for Americans. This is because interest rates and currency strength are closely linked, with higher rates typically supporting a stronger dollar. As the Fed signals possible rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, experts anticipate downward pressure on the dollar's value. However, some financial analysts believe the dollar's strength may persist. The current strong dollar has made overseas travel more affordable for Americans, particularly in countries like Japan, where the exchange rate has been highly favorable. This situation could change if the dollar weakens, affecting the purchasing power of U.S. travelers abroad.
READ MOREUS Inflation Hits 12-Month Low, Sparking Hope for Economic Relief
The United States experienced a significant cooling in inflation rates in June, with prices rising by only 3% over the past 12 months, marking the slowest pace in a year. This decline, largely attributed to lower gasoline prices, represents the third consecutive month of easing inflation. The trend is easing financial pressures on households and potentially paving the way for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts as early as September. While some staples like groceries and housing costs continue to rise, the overall inflation picture is improving, offering a glimmer of hope for the economy and potentially alleviating some of the economic dissatisfaction faced by the current administration.
READ MOREPRICE ALERT: Gold to $2,415 Nearing Record Highs, Silver to $31.50
Gold climbs above $2,415 mark as US Inflation data boosts rate-cut expectations; silver rises to $31.50
READ MORESurprise CPI Drop Propels Gold Prices Towards All-Time Highs
Gold futures experienced a significant surge on Thursday, approaching record highs following the release of U.S. inflation data showing a cooling trend. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported a 0.1% decrease in June, the first decline since May 2020, which investors interpreted as potential justification for the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate cuts. This unexpected downturn in inflation has bolstered sentiment among those anticipating earlier rate reductions. As a result, August gold futures on Comex rose by 1.8% to $2,421.90 an ounce, nearing the all-time intraday high of $2,454 and settlement high of $2,438.50 set on May 20.
READ MOREGold Shines in Short-Term as Copper Holds Mid-Term Appeal, Deutsche Bank Survey Finds
Deutsche Bank's latest Global Mining & Commodities Survey reveals a shift in investor preferences, with gold emerging as the favored commodity in the short term, while copper maintains its appeal for the medium term. This change is driven by concerns over China's economic slowdown and potential delays in the energy transition. The survey indicates a growing preference for early-cycle commodities like iron ore and coal, alongside expectations of easing supply constraints for metals crucial to decarbonization efforts. While ESG factors continue to influence perceptions of the mining sector, investors are increasingly focused on local environmental issues such as water stress and community relations.
READ MOREGold Nears Record Close as Global Uncertainties Fuel Rally
Gold prices are surging, approaching all-time record highs despite initial concerns over China's reserve holdings. The precious metal has gained $51, reaching $2422, driven by a combination of factors including potential rate cuts, economic growth concerns, large deficits, political instability, and geopolitical tensions. This rally demonstrates gold's enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. While the current price is nearing the all-time high closing level, it remains just shy of the intraday record of $2449 set in May, suggesting further potential for growth in the near future.
READ MOREConsumer Prices Cool Further: June Marks First Monthly CPI Drop Since 2020
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report reveals a significant cooling in US inflation for June 2023. For the first time since May 2020, the monthly headline CPI showed a negative value, decreasing by 0.1%. The annual inflation rate slowed to 3%, the lowest since March 2021, beating economists' expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also showed moderation, rising just 0.1% monthly and 3.3% annually. This data suggests a continued trend of easing inflationary pressures in the US economy, leading to positive market reactions, including a notable drop in Treasury yields.
READ MORECooling Inflation Sparks Treasury Rally, Reshaping Fed Policy Outlook
Treasury yields experienced a significant decline following the release of favorable inflation data, which has increased market expectations for at least two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2024. The drop in yields was observed across all maturities, with short-term rates particularly affected due to their sensitivity to Fed policy changes. Traders have now priced in a high probability of a rate cut in September, with some analysts predicting up to three cuts by year-end. This shift in market sentiment has led to a rally in Treasury bonds, potentially impacting upcoming auctions and reflecting growing investor confidence in a more dovish Fed stance in response to cooling inflation.
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