Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Gold just had one of its worst weeks in years. Oil is surging. Inflation expectations are climbing. And yet the case for owning physical gold may be stronger now than it was at the highs.
One chart explains why.
The World Gold Council publishes a weekly adaptation of Deutsche Bank’s “Pressure Index” — a composite reading of four market variables that tend to force the hand of policymakers. As of late March 2026, it’s at its highest level in the current cycle. Each of the six prior spikes to elevated readings was followed by a verbal signal, policy shift, or de-escalation from the administration [World Gold Council]. Gold was there for all of them.
What is the Conflict Pressure Index?
The Pressure Index tracks the 20-day change in four equally-weighted, standardized variables: the US 10-year Treasury yield, the S&P 500, 1-year inflation expectations, and presidential approval ratings as measured by RealClear [World Gold Council].
When all four move in the same direction — yields up, stocks down, inflation fears rising, approval ratings falling — the index spikes. The idea, drawn from Deutsche Bank’s research, is that the combination produces a level of political and economic pain above which administrations have historically changed course.
The index doesn’t predict what shifts. It signals that pressure is high enough that something usually gives.
What Does the Conflict Pressure Index Chart Show?
The chart covers February 2025 through late March 2026. Six labeled inflection points mark moments when prior elevated readings preceded a notable shift [World Gold Council]:
- April 9, 2025 — Trade policy de-escalation
- April 22, 2025 — Administration states no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell
- July 16, 2025 — Administration calls it “highly unlikely” Powell would be fired
- November 17, 2025 — Epstein documents release push
- January 21, 2026 — Greenland de-escalation
- March 23, 2026 — Announcement of “productive” Iran talks
Conflict Pressure Index
Deutsche Bank “Pressure Index” — 20-day change in four equally-weighted, standardized variables: US 10-year Treasury yield · S&P 500 · 1-year inflation expectations · presidential approval ratings (RealClear). Vertical markers show prior policy reversals or de-escalations.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council · Adapted for GoldSilver.com · Index values approximated from published chart
The pattern: at each labeled moment, the index had reached elevated levels. A signal followed. The index retreated. Event 6 — the announcement of Iran talks on March 23, 2026 — sits at the highest reading of the entire period. No prior spike has matched it.
Where Does the Conflict Pressure Index Stand Right Now?
The March surge reflects a simultaneous, sharp move across all four index components — a reaction the World Gold Council describes as “swift and sharp” [World Gold Council].
The numbers support that characterization. Brent crude oil was up 73.5% year-to-date as of March 27, 2026. The S&P 500 was down 6.96% for the year. The University of Michigan’s 1-year inflation expectations measure rose to 3.8% in March, up from 3.4% in February. Consumer sentiment fell to 53.3 — down from 56.6 in February [Bloomberg and University of Michigan via World Gold Council].
All four variables deteriorated together. That’s the signature the index is built to detect.
The open question is what gives first: a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, a Fed policy pivot, or a macroeconomic deterioration that forces a broader response.
What Does This Mean for Gold Right Now?
Gold’s recent decline has been steep but is starting to stabilize at technically significant levels.
The week ending March 20, 2026 saw gold fall 11.1% — its steepest single-week drop in the current cycle. By March 27, the LBMA Gold Price PM had settled at $4,503/oz, still up 3.1% year-to-date. From its year-to-date high of $5,595/oz, gold had declined roughly 19% to its recent low near $4,099/oz before partially recovering. That low precisely tested two major technical support levels: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of gold’s 2022–2025 uptrend near $4,075/oz, and its long-term 200-day moving average near $4,113/oz. Both held [Bloomberg via World Gold Council]. Short-term momentum has turned higher, and net long positioning on COMEX has begun to tentatively recover [CFTC via World Gold Council].
The WGC’s interpretation: this is a liquidity-driven pullback, not a fundamental one. Broad market selloffs often push investors to reduce gold positions to cover losses elsewhere. That dynamic doesn’t change gold’s role in a portfolio — it temporarily alters its price.
The Financial System Isn’t Safer — And You Know It As risks mount, see why gold and silver are projected to keep shining in 2026 and beyond.
How Has Gold Performed During Past Stagflation Periods?
The macro backdrop now combines the two ingredients that define stagflation: rising prices and slowing growth. Energy-driven inflation is cutting off the Fed’s path to rate cuts. Consumer confidence is weakening. Industrial data is softening.
Gold has historically performed well in this environment. The World Gold Council notes that weaker economic and labor data — if confirmed in March’s upcoming reports — could raise stagflation risks, and describes this as “an environment in which gold has historically delivered strong returns” [World Gold Council].
The structural reason is straightforward. Stagflation traps conventional assets: equities suffer from weak earnings, bonds lose real value as inflation rises, and cash erodes. Gold carries no credit risk and no yield — but in an environment where real returns on other assets are negative, that’s a feature, not a flaw. Central banks have recognized this. Despite isolated swap arrangements and sales that generated headlines in early 2026, the World Gold Council concludes that the strategic case for holding gold among central banks remains unchanged [World Gold Council].
What Should Investors Watch Over the Next Few Weeks?
Several data points will clarify the picture:
US jobs and manufacturing. The March nonfarm payrolls report — expected to show approximately 80,000 new jobs, a rebound from February’s strike-impacted miss — is the most closely watched near-term release [Bloomberg consensus via World Gold Council]. The ISM Manufacturing PMI and retail sales report will add context on whether consumer and industrial activity is holding up under the energy price shock.
Brent crude. As of March 27, Brent was trading at $112.57/barrel — approaching its current cycle high of $119.50. The next significant resistance sits at $121.85–$125.28, representing the 78.6% retracement of the 2022–2025 downtrend and the June 2022 highs [Bloomberg via World Gold Council]. A sustained break above that zone would indicate a more entrenched energy inflation problem and a stronger fundamental case for gold.
Middle East developments. The March 23 announcement of “productive” Iran talks is what drove the latest Pressure Index spike. Any genuine ceasefire or diplomatic development would likely trigger a gold pullback — consistent with how events 1 through 5 played out. That’s not a reason to avoid gold. It’s a reason to understand the short-term risk.
Euro-area inflation. The March euro-area CPI print is expected to reflect the energy price surge, with headline and core inflation both forecast to rise to approximately 2.5% year-over-year [Bloomberg consensus via World Gold Council]. A surprise to the upside would reinforce the global stagflation narrative.
The Bottom Line
The Conflict Pressure Index is at its highest reading in the current cycle — above every prior level that preceded a policy reversal or de-escalation. Gold has pulled back roughly 19% from its year-to-date high of $5,595/oz but has stabilized at key technical support near $4,075–$4,113 [Bloomberg via World Gold Council]. It remains up 3.1% year-to-date as of March 27, 2026 [World Gold Council].
The near-term path depends on whether de-escalation comes before further macroeconomic deterioration. Both scenarios have historical precedent in this chart. What the chart consistently shows is that elevated pressure readings resolve — and that gold tends to hold its value through the resolution.
The index is at a peak. History says something shifts. The only question is what — and whether you hold gold before it does.
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People Also Ask
What is the Conflict Pressure Index?
The Conflict Pressure Index is an adaptation of Deutsche Bank’s “Pressure Index,” published weekly by the World Gold Council. It tracks the 20-day change in four equally-weighted variables — the US 10-year Treasury yield, the S&P 500, 1-year inflation expectations, and presidential approval ratings — standardized and combined into a single composite reading. When all four deteriorate simultaneously, the index spikes, signaling a level of political and economic pressure above which administrations have historically changed course.
What does the Conflict Pressure Index mean for gold?
Historically, each time the Conflict Pressure Index has reached an elevated reading, a policy reversal, verbal signal, or de-escalation has followed — and gold has held its value through each one. As of late March 2026, the index is at its highest reading in the current cycle, driven by the Middle East conflict’s impact on oil prices, bond yields, inflation expectations, and consumer confidence. The World Gold Council interprets gold’s recent pullback as liquidity-driven rather than fundamental, with key technical support levels near $4,075–$4,113/oz having held.
Why did gold drop if geopolitical tensions are rising?
Gold’s sharp decline in the week ending March 20, 2026 — its steepest single-week drop of 11.1% in the current cycle — reflects a pattern common in broad market selloffs: investors liquidate gold positions to cover losses in other assets. This is a liquidity-driven move, not a signal that gold’s fundamental role has changed. The World Gold Council notes that gold has since stabilized at key long-term technical support levels, with short-term momentum beginning to turn higher.
What is stagflation and why is it good for gold?
Stagflation is an economic environment characterized by slowing growth and rising prices occurring simultaneously — a combination that traps conventional assets. Equities suffer from weak earnings, bonds lose real value as inflation erodes their returns, and cash loses purchasing power. Gold, which carries no credit risk, has historically delivered strong returns in stagflationary environments, making it one of the few assets that tends to benefit from the conditions that hurt most others.
Is gold a good investment during a Middle East conflict?
Gold has a well-documented history of performing well during geopolitical stress events, rising in roughly two-thirds of major geopolitical risk spikes according to World Gold Council analysis. However, short-term price action can be volatile — broad market selloffs sometimes cause gold to decline temporarily as investors raise cash. The medium-term case tends to be stronger, particularly when conflict drives energy inflation and raises stagflation risks, both of which historically favor gold over equities and bonds.
Sources
- World Gold Council, Weekly Markets Monitor: Conflict Pressure Mounts, March 30, 2026 — gold.org
- World Gold Council, COMEX Net Long Positioning — gold.org/goldhub/data/comex-net-long-positioning
- University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers, March 2026 — sca.isr.umich.edu · Also via FRED, St. Louis Fed
- CFTC, Commitments of Traders — cftc.gov · Gold futures direct: cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
- RealClear, Presidential Approval Ratings — realclearpolling.com
- Bloomberg market data cited throughout via World Gold Council. Bloomberg data is proprietary; all figures sourced from the WGC report linked above.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
