100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

Oil markets are experiencing their third straight weekly decline, with Brent crude falling more than 2% as the impact of Trump’s comprehensive China tariffs overshadows new Iran sanctions. The market’s response reflects deeper concerns about global demand, particularly in China where private refiners have reduced operations to levels not seen since the pandemic. Despite technical indicators suggesting oversold conditions, the market remains focused on potential economic slowdown risks stemming from escalating trade tensions, particularly as China prepares to implement retaliatory measures.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to appear before Congress next week for the first time in seven months, facing questions about monetary policy at a critical juncture. The testimony, scheduled before the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services panel, follows the Fed’s decision to maintain rates at 4.25%-4.5% after implementing 100 basis points in cuts across three meetings last year. Powell’s stance on cautious policy movement has gained unified support from Fed officials, with analysts expecting no rate changes until the second half of the year. The political context has shifted favorably, with President Trump now backing

President Trump’s revival of his maximum pressure campaign against Iran’s oil exports has met a muted market response, highlighting significant changes in global oil dynamics since his first term. While Iranian exports dropped to 150,000 bpd in 2020 under Trump’s previous sanctions, they’ve rebounded to 1.6 million bpd during Biden’s presidency, primarily through sales to Chinese teapot refineries using a sophisticated sanctions-evasion network of 470 ghost tankers. The market’s calm reaction reflects several factors: OPEC+’s ability to offset potential Iranian supply losses, record U.S. production exceeding 13 million bpd, and overall slack in global markets. While StoneX analysts predict sanctions