100 Days In: Trump’s ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ on Tariffs Leaves Markets Guessing

The stock market is at record highs right now, but Wall Street experts are concerned about hidden risks. While the market is celebrating Trump’s business-friendly policies, it might be ignoring the dangers of his planned tariffs. Here’s what has experts worried: Trump is threatening to put 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada by March. So far, investors have dismissed these threats as just negotiating tactics. But if these tariffs actually happen, they could seriously hurt company profits and cause the stock market to drop by 5-10%. Goldman Sachs and other major banks warn that without strong company earnings

U.S. existing home sales fell 4.9% in January to an annual rate of 4.08 million units, exceeding economists’ forecasted decline. The decline to 4.08 million units annually was worse than the 4.12 million units economists had predicted. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun points to a persistent affordability crisis, as mortgage rates have remained elevated around 6.85% despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 100 basis points since September. This housing market weakness, coupled with a sharp decline in single-family housing starts, suggests residential investment is faltering early in 2024. The Fed’s pause in rate cuts reflects their assessment of

Jesse Rothstein, a UC Berkeley professor and former Department of Labor chief economist, predicts an imminent “deep, deep recession” driven by Musk’s federal spending cuts. The March employment report, due April 4, is expected to show job losses exceeding any month outside of the 2008-9 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic. The impact extends beyond direct government job cuts, as universities and other institutions implement hiring freezes in response. Rothstein warns that the damage will be compounded by reduced federal government productivity, affecting essential services from infrastructure to public safety. While Musk acknowledges potential “temporary hardship,” the economist suggests the consequences