$21 Billion in Extra Tariff Revenue Still Can’t Balance the Books as Deficit Widens

Gold continues its impressive rally in 2025, rising over 25% and heading for a third straight year of double-digit gains—a performance streak unseen since the mid-2000s. The precious metal has broken from traditional patterns, ignoring typical drivers like real yields and dollar strength. Instead, geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism, and central bank buying—particularly from China and other emerging economies seeking to diversify from the dollar—have fueled demand. While gold lacks intrinsic valuation metrics and faces potential headwinds from higher interest rates and cryptocurrency competition, Rothschild & Co maintains a strategic overweight position. They view gold as a crucial portfolio diversifier and

Financial markets are unusually calm, with volatility measures for stocks, bonds, and currencies all hitting yearly lows. The VIX “fear gauge” has dropped to its lowest level since December, while Treasury volatility is at early-2022 lows. This calm seems surprising given ongoing risks: geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and Trump’s Fed criticism. But experts cite three key reasons for the low volatility: – large cash reserves ready to buy any dips – a stronger-than-expected economy avoiding recession – and investors betting Trump will back down from extreme threats (his typical pattern) With the S&P 500 hitting new records and inflation improving,

Investors are enthusiastically buying risky assets across all markets following encouraging US inflation data, with Wall Street hitting record highs and volatility measures collapsing to yearly lows. Despite concerns about Trump’s tariffs, traders are betting that falling interest rates will boost an already resilient economy. Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, with Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting rates could drop 150-175 basis points. The optimism is driven by strong tech earnings, which accounted for 90% of S&P 500 profit growth, and a general “what tariffs, who cares?” attitude among investors.

Gold prices are consolidating near $3,355-$3,360 (spot) and $3,410 (futures) as investors position for a potential stagflation scenario—a combination of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation. Following disappointing U.S. jobs data that showed only 73,000 jobs added versus 150,000 expected, markets now price an 81% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold target to $3,500, viewing stagflation as the base case rather than a tail risk. The upcoming CPI report on Tuesday will be crucial, with a softer inflation reading likely to push gold through resistance at $3,450.

In a statement on Bloomberg TV, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for substantial interest rate reductions, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive for the U.S. economy. Bessent specifically stated that rates should be 150-175 basis points lower than current levels, which would represent a major shift in monetary policy. He anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a cutting cycle beginning with a potential 50 basis point reduction in September. This marks a notable divergence from the Fed’s recent cautious stance and suggests the Trump administration is pushing for more aggressive monetary accommodation to support economic growth and market conditions.