20th Anniversary Deals: Get Them While They Last
The U.S. dollar index recovered 0.30% to 106.56 on Wednesday, climbing from its lowest level since December 10 as Treasury yields rebounded from their recent declines.
This rebound comes despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s warnings about economic fragility beneath surface-level metrics, pointing to interest rate volatility, persistent inflation, and overdependence on government sector job growth. Bessent also emphasized tariffs as an important revenue source, adding to market uncertainty.
Currency strategists highlight the complex impact of tariff rhetoric, with Thierry Wizman of Macquarie noting that even discussions about tariffs can delay business activity and create disinflationary pressure, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The Fed now faces balancing this uncertainty against the potential inflation from actual tariff implementation.
Currently, money markets anticipate 54 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year-end, equivalent to two 25-basis-point reductions plus a 20% chance of an additional cut.
