Economic Storm Clouds Gather for 2025 Despite Recent Gains

Gold pushed higher overnight as traders priced in faster Fed easing and Treasury yields retreated. But the bigger story: with Jerome Powell’s term ending in early 2026, uncertainty over Fed leadership is mounting. From Kevin Hassett’s pitch to a shortlist of five candidates, the race to lead the Federal Reserve is injecting volatility into markets — and gold is benefiting.

Trump’s $21 trillion investment claim shrinks to $3 trillion under scrutiny, while delayed GDP reports and disappointing retail sales raise questions about data integrity and economic strength. With consumers tapped out from years of rising costs and producer prices jumping again, the economic picture is murkier than ever. Meanwhile, China’s gold imports plunge 64% as global demand patterns shift. Here’s what investors need to know about the data doubts, consumer weakness, and inflation comeback shaping markets today.

Gold held near $4,080 Monday as December Fed rate cut expectations surged, but a strong dollar and divided Fed officials kept gains modest. Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed tariffs don’t drive inflation—contradicting CPI data showing a jump from 2.3% to 3.0% since April. UBS sees silver’s pullback as a buying opportunity with a $55 target by mid-2026, while a new Senate bill could bring the first credible audit of US gold reserves since 1953.