ETF Inflows Drive Gold Demand to Highest First-Half Levels Since 2020

Gold prices bounced around as traders reacted to new US inflation data and uncertainty about future interest rates. Inflation for goods stayed mild in July, but core inflation rose at the fastest pace this year. Many still expect the Fed to cut rates in September, which could be good news for gold. Markets were also watching for clarity on whether US tariffs would hit gold imports. President Trump suggested there won’t be a levy, but the industry wants a formal decision. Gold is up more than 27% so far this year, supported by safe-haven buying amid global tensions.

Trading.com CEO Peter McGuire expects gold and silver to surge in the second half of 2025, with gold possibly reaching $3,600–$4,000 and silver exceeding $40. He cites a weakening US dollar, an anticipated US rate cut, and strong investor demand as key drivers. While gold briefly corrected after US President Trump confirmed no tariffs on precious metals, McGuire believes Q3 and Q4 will be bullish for bullion, with silver showing greater percentage gains. He also predicts crude oil prices will decline in Q4 due to reduced geopolitical tensions, abundant supply, and falling inflation — factors that could lower energy costs

Uncertainty looms over the gold market as Washington considers tariffs on imported gold bullion bars, a move that has already rattled prices and disrupted global trade. Barrick Mining CEO Mark Bristow says the industry awaits official clarification, but downplays potential negative effects, noting miners could benefit if prices rise. Barrick’s Q2 earnings exceeded forecasts, supported by higher gold prices, even as production fell due to halted Mali operations amid a dispute with the military government. The company has no plans to sell its Loulo-Gounkoto mine despite losing control and incurring a $1.03 billion write-down.

Silver’s rally — up 35% in the past 12 months — is being fueled by a mix of industrial demand and safe-haven investment. Uses in photovoltaics, EVs, and electronics have driven consumption to 1.16 billion ounces in 2024, while annual mine supply remains near 1.02 billion ounces, causing structural deficits for five straight years. Since about 70–80% of silver is a byproduct of other mining, production is relatively inelastic. While inflation has cooled slightly, expected U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar could further boost silver prices. Analyst forecasts vary widely—from $28 to $50 over the next year —