Rates Just Went Up Twice. Five Reasons Gold Didn’t Care.

Published: 09-18-2026, 10:48 am

Gold trades near $4,349 and silver near $66.22 today. The Federal Reserve hiked rates on September 16. The Bank of Japan hiked again on September 18. Standard theory says both moves should hurt gold. Higher rates raise the cost of holding a metal that pays no yield. Instead, five separate stories broke within hours of each other. Every one of them points the other way. Here is each signal, and the mechanism behind it.

Is Goldman Sachs Still Bullish on Gold After This Week’s Fed Hike?

Yes. Goldman Sachs is holding its $5,400-an-ounce, end-2027 gold forecast intact. That is despite the Fed’s 25-basis-point hike to 3.75%-4.00% this week. The bank even added a second hike, in October, to its own rate-path call. Normally that would lower a gold target, not preserve it. Goldman’s own model explains why. It sees central banks buying near 91 tonnes of gold a month. It also sees call-option demand running at roughly three times its historical average. Both trends offset the drag from higher rates. So Goldman did trim its nearer-term 2026 fair value, to $4,650 from $4,900. But it left the end point untouched. Slower path, same target.

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Why Does David Einhorn Think Gold Will Beat the Nasdaq Over the Next Five Years?

Because he sees two forces moving apart. Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn told Morgan Stanley that gold will “significantly outperform” the Nasdaq over the next three to five years. His case rests on three things: loose U.S. fiscal policy, ongoing de-dollarization, and the West’s 2022 freeze of Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves. That freeze, he argues, pushed other governments to ask a hard question. How safe is a dollar reserve, really, if it can be frozen by decree? On the other side sits Big Tech. Einhorn says heavy AI spending is turning asset-light tech monopolies into capital-intensive, competitive businesses. That shift eats into the profit margins the Nasdaq’s biggest names depend on. Falling trust in the dollar’s reserve role has tracked rising gold prices before. Einhorn is betting it happens again.

Why Is Venezuela Moving $4 Billion in Gold From London to New York?

Because custody, not ownership, has been the real fight. The Financial Times reports that Venezuela’s government and opposition are near a deal. It would move roughly $4 billion in gold reserves from the Bank of England to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The Bank of England has held the gold since 2019. It refused to recognize the Maduro government’s authority over the metal. Under the new deal, Venezuela’s interim government would gain legal control. It still could not sell the gold right away. Instead, it could pledge the metal as collateral for post-earthquake rebuilding loans. Central banks have pulled more than 2,000 tonnes of gold back from foreign vaults since 2011. The reason is simple. Metal held in someone else’s vault is not fully yours until a government agrees that it is.

Is China Still Buying Gold as It Sheds U.S. Treasuries?

Yes, and the two moves are connected. China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen to about $618 billion. That is the lowest level since 2008, down from a $1.3 trillion peak in 2013. When a reserve manager trims Treasury exposure, that freed-up capital has to go somewhere. A World Gold Council survey found that 89% of central banks expect their gold reserves to grow over the next year. ANZ separately flagged rising institutional gold demand from asset managers in China, India, and Australia this month. Selling Treasuries and buying gold are not two separate stories. They are one reserve manager making a single decision.

Is Hong Kong Trying to Build Its Own Global Gold Market?

Yes. Chief Executive John Lee used his September 16 Policy Address to commit Hong Kong to a bigger role in gold. The plan adds new yuan-denominated, physically settled gold futures contracts. Hong Kong will also explore growing its own Exchange Fund gold reserves. The mechanism matters more than the announcement itself. A rival clearing and settlement hub pulls physical trading volume away from London and New York. Every ounce settled through Hong Kong is, by default, an ounce priced outside the dollar system. That is the thread running through all five signals this week. Rate decisions move gold’s price today. Central banks, sovereigns, and market infrastructure are quietly deciding what backs the system tomorrow.

SOURCES
1. InvestingLive — Goldman Keeps $5,400 Gold Forecast Intact Despite Fed Hike
2. Futu News — Hedge Fund Veteran David Einhorn: “Gold Will Significantly Outperform the Nasdaq”
3. Al Arabiya English (Reuters) — Venezuela Nears Deal to Move $4 Billion in Gold Reserves to New York
4. Mining.com.au — China Cuts US Treasury Holdings as Gold Demand Grows
5. World Gold Council — Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026
6. Caixin Global — Hong Kong to Accelerate Push for International Gold Trading Hub

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.   

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