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Gold just had its best quarter in nearly 40 years, with prices hitting a record $3,150.30 — up 19.3% in the first quarter of 2025. This is the strongest performance since the third quarter of 1986, with 18 record-high closings already this year.
Two main factors are driving gold’s surge:
– Central banks (especially China) are buying gold to reduce their dependency on the U.S. dollar after Russian assets were frozen
– Strong retail demand, with gold bars becoming a top seller at Costco and investors pouring money into gold ETFs
Gold mining companies are performing even better, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 34% this year. This outperformance marks a significant change after miners lagged behind gold by 17% over the past decade.
Analysts see gold mining stocks as good value at 14 times forward earnings (below their 10-year average of 20.08). UBS expects earnings forecasts to rise as gold prices stay high. For individual stock picks, analysts recommend Newmont (the world’s largest gold producer) and Barrick.
However, there’s a note of caution: since gold has been in a bull market since September 2022, it could face corrections if early investors decide to take profits.
