Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 08-24-2026, 10:38 am
Gold pushed above $4,600 this morning for the first time since May, and silver is holding near $69. But look closer, and the real story isn’t today’s number. It’s what happens Friday. Treasury yields fell again this morning, the dollar sits near a three-month low, and both moves trace back to one event: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote. Here are five threads pulling toward the same Friday morning.
Why Did Treasury Yields Fall Again Today?
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped roughly 2 basis points to 4.71% on Monday, and the 30-year eased a similar amount to 5.25%. Neither move came from new economic data. Instead, traders are positioning ahead of Warsh’s Friday address, unwinding some of Friday’s yield increase in the process. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, so this kind of pre-event de-risking tends to show up directly in bullion prices. It’s a reminder that gold’s cost of carry moves on positioning, not just on headline data.
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Is the Dollar’s Slide the Real Story Behind Gold’s Rally?
The dollar index is sitting near 98.8, close to a three-month low. Desks across the board point to it as the dominant tailwind behind this month’s metals rally. A softer dollar lowers the local-currency cost of gold for overseas buyers, which widens the pool of demand without any change in the metal’s own fundamentals. Combined with falling yields, the setup gives gold two supportive forces at once. That pairing helps explain why the rally has held even as long-term yields remain historically elevated.
What Data Lands Before Warsh Speaks?
Wednesday brings core PCE inflation and the second-quarter GDP revision, both arriving two days ahead of Friday’s keynote. Consensus sits at 0.2% month over month for core PCE, with a print of 0.3% or higher seen as the threshold that would push September rate-hike odds meaningfully higher. GDP’s second estimate could move in either direction depending on revised trade data, after the advance estimate showed growth slowing to 1.5% annualized. That genuine uncertainty on both fronts is part of why Warsh’s tone on Friday carries more weight than a typical Jackson Hole appearance.
Why Does Warsh’s First Jackson Hole Speech Carry So Much Weight?
Warsh delivers his first keynote as Fed chair on Friday, August 28, at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, with the address expected around 10 a.m. ET pending the Kansas City Fed’s official agenda. That’s nineteen days ahead of the September 16 policy decision. He has no policy track record as chair yet, so markets have no prior pattern to anchor expectations on. The speech itself becomes a bigger source of new information than the words alone might normally carry. Bank of America’s August fund manager survey found 53% expect a neutral, big-picture tone, versus 31% expecting hawkish language and 7% expecting dovish.
What Happens to Gold If Warsh Surprises Either Way?
The setup is genuinely two-sided. A neutral tone, the outcome markets currently expect, would likely leave gold’s current mechanism intact and change little. A hawkish read would push yields and the dollar higher, adding cost-of-carry pressure on bullion. A dovish read would send yields and the dollar lower still, extending the same trade that has carried gold and silver higher this month. Either surprise would also land awkwardly for the Treasury, whose own bond buybacks have struggled to fully contain long-end yields on their own, an early sign that fiscal tools alone may not be enough to manage borrowing costs without help from the Fed’s own posture.
The deeper pattern underneath it doesn’t go away regardless of what Warsh says Friday: when a government needs its own central bank’s posture to help manage its borrowing costs, that’s the structural backdrop that makes holding a store of value outside the currency system worth understanding, not just trading around.
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SOURCES
1. CNBC, “Treasury yields fall as investors brace for Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote amid bond fears,” Aug. 24, 2026 — cnbc.com
2. CoinDesk, “Jackson Hole Symposium, U.S. PCE prices, IREN earnings: Crypto Week Ahead,” Aug. 24, 2026 — coindesk.com
3. Yahoo Finance, “Gold prices today, Monday, August 24, 2026,” Aug. 24, 2026 — finance.yahoo.com
4. Yahoo Finance, “Silver prices today, Monday, August 24, 2026,” Aug. 24, 2026 — finance.yahoo.com
5. Babypips, “Fundies Cheat Sheet: August 24–28, 2026,” Aug. 23, 2026 — babypips.com
6. MNI Markets, “FED: Chair Warsh To Give Jackson Hole Keynote Speech Aug 28 At 10am ET” — mnimarkets.com
7. Investing.com, “Gold holds near 3-month high as Treasury moves fuel demand for bullion” — investing.com
8. Gold and silver spot prices — goldsilver.com/price-charts/
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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