Gold Steady, Shoppers Cautious, and Nvidia Under Scrutiny

Daily News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
November 19th, 2025 

Gold Treads Water Ahead of Fed Minutes 

Gold is holding near $4,100 an ounce as traders await two key catalysts: the Fed’s October meeting minutes and a delayed September jobs report. After bouncing from the $4,000 level earlier this week, bullion is caught between safe-haven demand and a firmer dollar. Markets have cooled dramatically on another December rate cut — odds now sit at just 46%, down from 63% last week.  

Meanwhile, unemployment claims hit a two-month high, hinting at labor market cracks. Gold’s next move could hinge on this week’s data. Any dovish hints in the minutes or soft jobs numbers could push prices back toward $4,200. For now, gold remains range-bound — neither cheap enough for aggressive buying nor weak enough to spark selling. 

While the U.S. watches Fed policy, China is playing a longer game with gold… 

China’s Quiet Gold Supremacy Play 

China is rapidly closing the “gold gap” with the U.S. in a calculated move to challenge dollar dominance. While Beijing officially reports 2,303 tons of gold, ANZ Bank estimates China’s true reserves could hit 5,500 tons — enough to claim the world’s second-largest stockpile behind the U.S. This isn’t just about stacking bars.  

China has built parallel gold infrastructure: expanding the Shanghai Gold Exchange to emphasize physical delivery, relaxing investment rules, and opening offshore vaults in Hong Kong. As Carlyle’s Jeff Currie put it, “China is buying gold as part of a de-dollarization strategy.” With U.S. Treasury holdings down from $1.3 trillion to $759 billion, China is pivoting toward hard assets that can’t be frozen — a lesson learned after Western sanctions against Russia in 2022. 

Back home, Americans have their own economic pressures to navigate this holiday season. 

Holiday Spending Likely to Take a Hit 

Americans are tightening their belts this holiday season. The National Retail Federation expects shoppers to spend $890 per person on gifts, food, and decor — down from last year’s record $902. A mix of tariffs, inflation, and the ongoing government shutdown squeezing household budgets. Bank of America’s latest data reveals a “Tale of Two Wallets,” with higher earners still spending freely while lower-income consumers are shopping earlier to spread costs and beat potential tariff-driven price hikes.  

Retailers are responding with aggressive pre-Black Friday deals to lure cautious shoppers. The shift is noticeable: consumers are flocking to big box stores and dollar retailers while avoiding outlets and e-commerce. Even Gen Z is chasing dupes and secondhand finds. It’s a clear sign that despite near-record stock markets, everyday Americans are feeling the pinch. 

One potential remedy (though economists are skeptical) comes from the White House. 

Trump’s $2,000 “Tariff Dividend” Faces Math Problem 

President Trump is floating the idea of sending Americans $2,000 checks funded by tariff revenue — a proposal economists say doesn’t add up. The math is brutal: total tariff revenue for the last fiscal year was $195 billion, while the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates one round of checks would cost $600 billion. That’s before considering Trump’s promise to also pay down debt with the same revenue.  

Yet some analysts aren’t dismissing it entirely. Trump has a track record of turning campaign trail fantasies into reality — no taxes on tips and overtime were both considered far-fetched before becoming law. Treasury Secretary Bessent is already hedging, suggesting the “dividend” could come as tax cuts instead of checks. Either way, it’s another fiscal wildcard markets are now forced to price in. 

Meanwhile, Wall Street has questions of its own about AI’s hottest player… 

Nvidia’s $24B AI Investment Spree Raises Eyebrows 

Nvidia has dumped $23.7 billion into AI firms this year alone through 59 deals—outpacing all of 2024’s activity in just ten months. The latest: a partnership with Microsoft and Anthropic worth up to $10 billion. But Wall Street is starting to ask uncomfortable questions about these “circular investments.” Many say Nvidia is essentially funding its own customers. OpenAI, xAI, and Anthropic all receive billions from Nvidia, then turn around and buy billions worth of Nvidia chips. “It’s very murky,” says Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg. “To what degree is Nvidia investing versus buying demand or subsidizing demand for its chips?”  

CEO Jensen Huang insists the investments are separate from revenue and that backing the next “multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company” is simply smart business. Some analysts agree, calling it a savvy way to boost the AI ecosystem. But with tech stocks selling off on AI bubble fears, Nvidia’s $53 billion AI investment portfolio is drawing scrutiny.

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