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Iran’s Nuclear Retaliation Threat: Could the World’s Oil Lifeline Be Cut?

The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Gulf to the Arabian Sea, handles approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily – worth nearly $600 billion annually. This 50km-wide corridor is vital for Middle Eastern oil producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar) and their customers, particularly Asian economies. China, India, Japan, and South Korea depend heavily on oil passing through the strait, with some countries receiving up to 75% of their crude oil via this route.

Iran could potentially close the strait using mines, fast attack boats, submarines, and anti-ship missiles deployed by its navy and Revolutionary Guard. However, such action would be “economic suicide” according to US officials, as it would hurt Iran’s oil exports ($67 billion last year) and anger its main customer, China, which buys 90% of Iranian oil exports.

While a closure would spike global oil prices and disrupt international trade, the US has experience keeping the strait open, as demonstrated during the 1980s Iran-Iraq “tanker war.” Alternative pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE could handle about 15% of current strait traffic, providing limited backup options. Most experts believe any Iranian blockade would be temporary before US military intervention restored shipping lanes.

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