Powell’s Tightrope Walk: How Jackson Hole Speech Could Make or Break Stock Rally

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is set to begin Thursday evening, August 21-23, 2025, at a pivotal moment for global monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to unveil the central bank’s new policy framework in his Friday speech, outlining the strategy for achieving inflation and employment goals. Markets are watching closely for hints about the Fed’s September meeting, as officials remain divided on when to resume rate cuts amid persistent inflation concerns and labor market slowdown signs. The symposium’s theme, “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy,” reflects current economic challenges facing policymakers

Gold held steady around $3,340 per ounce following a 1.8% weekly decline, as concerns mount that President Trump’s tariff agenda is creating inflationary pressures in the US economy. The precious metal’s drop came after data showed US wholesale inflation accelerated in July by the most in three years, prompting traders to reduce bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Higher borrowing costs negatively impact non-interest-bearing gold, while a stronger dollar and rising bond yields following the inflation data added additional pressure. Market participants are now closely watching upcoming consumer price data to gauge whether companies are passing higher

Gold prices rose 0.4% to $3,348.28 per ounce on Monday, bouncing back from a two-week low. The gains were driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, which typically support gold prices. Markets are closely watching President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders to discuss potential peace negotiations with Russia. Any easing of geopolitical tensions could soften gold prices slightly. Investors are also anticipating the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium for clues about interest rate cuts, with economists expecting at least one rate cut in September.

China’s gold market showed mixed signals in July 2025, with the People’s Bank of China continuing its buying streak by adding 2 tons, marking nine consecutive months of purchases and bringing total reserves to 2,300 tons. However, retail demand remained subdued – Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals of 93 tons were well below the 10-year average, while Chinese gold ETFs saw outflows of 2.4 billion yuan ($325 million) as investors shifted to equities amid stronger economic data. Gold imports for the first half of 2025 plunged 62% year-over-year to just 323 tons, reflecting weak jewelry demand at record-high prices despite continued

CME Group’s micro metals futures showed mixed performance in July amid tariff uncertainty and Fed policy concerns. Gold prices briefly surged above $3,450/oz after President Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell, but ended July flat at just under $3,300/oz following a hawkish Fed meeting. Silver gained 1.5% to close at $36.710/oz, benefiting from initial tariff fears before bullion was exempted. Copper experienced extreme volatility, jumping 13% on July 8 after Trump announced potential 50% import tariffs, only to crash 14.3% by month-end to $4.3545/lb when copper cathodes were excluded. Trading volumes surged, with Micro Copper futures ADV up 89%