Precious Metals Remain Range-Bound Despite Strong YTD Gains

Gold has outshined every major asset in 2025, climbing 28% so far and reaching $3,337 per ounce in mid-August. UBS forecasts the metal to hit $3,500 by December and keep rising into 2026. Driving factors include central banks’ steady buying, the strongest ETF inflows since 2010, and rising global demand—the highest since 2011. UBS points to U.S. fiscal concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker dollar as further support. While higher Fed rates remain a risk, the bank says gold remains a key hedge and portfolio diversifier.

Gold is often dismissed as outdated, but the numbers tell another story. Adding just 10% gold to an equity-heavy portfolio barely reduced returns yet significantly cut risk and improved downside protection. In nearly every major downturn over the past decade, gold buffered losses—helping investors stay the course when markets were at their worst. Despite lacking yield, gold remains a crisis-tested store of value trusted worldwide, making it an obvious choice for portfolio resilience.

Goldman Sachs analysts argue that gold acts more like Manhattan real estate than oil. The reason: gold isn’t consumed like other commodities; it’s accumulated and passed between owners. With nearly 220,000 metric tons still in existence and annual supply adding just 1%, prices are determined by buyers’ willingness to hold. Two groups dominate the market: conviction buyers (central banks, ETFs, speculators) who buy regardless of price, and opportunistic buyers (emerging market households) who step in only when prices drop. Similar to Manhattan housing, where a fixed supply means the “marginal buyer” sets the price, conviction buyers explain about 70% of

Commodity giant Trafigura is expanding into gold and silver trading, hiring three experienced traders from MKS Pamp and OCIM to strengthen its presence in the sector. The new desk will handle doré, semi-processed bars refined into bullion, and could eventually push Trafigura into the bullion market traditionally dominated by major banks. The move comes as gold prices hover above $3,500 an ounce and silver climbs more than 30% this year, offering strong profit potential. By diversifying into precious metals, Trafigura is looking to offset competitive pressures in copper and aluminum while tapping into a growing but tightly controlled global gold