Rate Cut Dilemma: Powell Must Balance Trump’s Demands Against Fed Credibility on Inflation

Gold slipped below $4,000 as US-China trade progress triggered the sharpest pullback in over a decade — but the debate over what comes next is splitting Wall Street. Citigroup sees further drops to $3,800, while Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Societe Generale are calling for $5,000 by 2026. With gold still up 55% this year despite the correction, the question is whether this pullback is a healthy reset or the start of something bigger.

Inflation cooled to 3.0% in September, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week. Gold and silver pulled back from recent highs as US-China negotiators reached another preliminary trade deal in Malaysia, though past agreements have collapsed before implementation. Meanwhile, the government shutdown enters its fourth week with 42 million Americans set to lose SNAP benefits starting November 1st.

Inflation cooled to 3.0% in September, clearing the path for Fed rate cuts and sending the dollar lower. Meanwhile, gold funds saw record inflows as investors sought safety amid persistent inflation and global uncertainty.