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U.S. Service Sector Contracts as Trade War Uncertainty Freezes Business Activity

The service side of the U.S. economy shrank in May for the first time in almost 12 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Their index fell to 49.9% from April’s 51.6%, dropping below the critical 50% threshold that separates growth from contraction. The ongoing trade wars have disrupted businesses across the service sector, despite most companies having less direct exposure to imports and exports than manufacturers.

Key indicators painted a concerning picture: new orders plummeted to their lowest level in over three years (46.4%), while inflation pressures intensified with prices jumping to a 2.5-year high (68.7%). Production barely stayed positive at 50.0%, and employment remained weak at 50.7%. Business leaders expressed significant uncertainty, with one transportation executive noting that tariffs have increased operating costs. While the Trump administration eased some tariffs to provide economic relief, experts warn that trade tensions will continue weighing on growth until resolved.

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