Oil prices jumped 3% Monday after Ukraine’s surprise drone strikes on Russian air bases damaged military bombers. This geopolitical shock temporarily overshadowed OPEC+’s weekend decision to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in July—their third straight month of increases.
OPEC+ has now restored 1.37 million of the 2.2 million barrels per day they cut in January 2024. However, analysts doubt the price rally will last. They see it as a brief “relief rally” sparked by conflict rather than real market improvements.
The oil market remains fundamentally weak due to excess supply and poor demand. Despite Monday’s gains, both WTI and Brent crude are still near three-week lows.