Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 07-04-2026, 06:00 pm | Updated: 07-04-2026, 05:58 pm
🌆 Evening News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
April 7th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor
Gold, silver, stagflation, and war risk converged today. Here’s what the Iran deadline, $100 oil, and a JPMorgan buy call mean for precious metals investors.
Trump Weighs 2-Week Extension as Iran Deadline Hits 8PM
President Trump’s 8PM ET deadline for Iran arrives tonight — but he may not act immediately. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif formally asked Trump to extend the deadline two weeks, citing diplomatic progress. The White House confirmed Trump was briefed and that “a response will come.” [USA Today]
Earlier today, Trump posted that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” The statement drew rebukes from Pope Leo, lawmakers in both parties, and Iran’s UN ambassador — who called the threats potential “incitement to war crimes and genocide.” Iran remains defiant. It has rejected any deal that does not include a permanent end to the conflict.
Oil is above $100 a barrel. Gas prices hit a national average of $4.14 today — up 39% since the war began in late February. While the geopolitical crisis dominates markets, Friday’s jobs report added another layer of uncertainty closer to home.
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What Did the March Jobs Report Actually Tell Us?
The headline number looked strong — 178,000 new jobs, the biggest monthly gain in 15 months. The fine print is less reassuring.
The unemployment rate dipped, but not for the right reasons. Some 396,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force entirely. Participation fell to 61.9% — its lowest since November 2021[CNBC]. Goldman Sachs estimated that weather, the end of major strikes, and seasonal modeling quirks likely accounted for 122,000 of March’s gains [CNN].
Then there are the revisions. February was quietly revised down by 41,000 — from -92,000 to -133,000 [Eye on Housing]. January’s annual BLS model overhaul was more damaging still: the bureau erased 403,000 jobs from 2025, leaving the economy averaging just 15,000 new jobs per month for the entire year.
Wage growth, meanwhile, slowed to 3.5% annually. Economists are forecasting inflation back above 3% — driven largely by $100+ oil. Cooling wages against rising prices is the definition of stagflation. The March report doesn’t confirm it. But the direction of travel is hard to ignore.
What Does JP Morgan See in the Gold Mining Pullback?
Gold miners have dropped roughly 20% since the US-Iran war began, even as gold itself is down about 11%. JP Morgan says the divergence is a buying signal, not a warning [Yahoo Finance].
In a note published today, the bank argued the selloff follows a familiar market-shock pattern. Historically, miners have rallied around 80% on average in the six months after gold troughs in comparable episodes. JPM also flagged a shift in Fed expectations — with its economists now anticipating a more dovish stance given mounting risks to growth and employment.
The bank kept its year-end 2026 gold price target at $6,300 an ounce, roughly 35% above spot. Its top picks are AngloGold and Fresnillo, both rated overweight. The thesis: the macro conditions driving gold’s pullback — war shock, forced deleveraging, rate uncertainty — are the same ones that tend to precede its next leg higher.
Chinese Demand Just Hit an 8-Year High
Silver is down about 2.5% today, caught in the broader precious metals pullback. The price action looks weak. The demand picture doesn’t.
China — the world’s largest silver buyer — imported over 790 tonnes in the first two months of 2026 [IndexBox]. Nearly 470 tonnes arrived in February alone, a record for that month. Two forces drove the surge: retail investors rotating into silver bars as a gold alternative, and solar manufacturers front-running a Chinese export tax rebate removal that hit April 1.
The physical market is responding. Strong Chinese demand pushed domestic prices above international benchmarks, drawing metal in from abroad and draining exchange stockpiles. Visible inventories tracked by major exchanges are declining or sitting below long-term averages — a sign of systemic scarcity, not temporary tightness.
Silver’s dual role as both industrial input and monetary metal makes today’s divergence worth watching. A war-driven oil shock creates headwinds for manufacturing broadly. But solar demand is structural — and China is still buying.
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SOURCES
1. USA Today — Trump Weighs 2-Week Extension as Iran Deadline Hits 8PM
2. CNBC — Labor Force Participation Falls to Lowest Since November 2021
3. CNN — Goldman Sachs: Weather and Seasonal Factors Inflated March Jobs Gains
4. Eye on Housing — February Jobs Revised Down to -133,000
5. Yahoo Finance — JP Morgan: Gold Miner Selloff Is a Buying Signal
6. IndexBox — China Silver Imports Hit 8-Year High in Early 2026
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
