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Wholesale Prices Drop Sharply in April, but Economists Warn of Tariff-Driven Inflation Ahead

April’s Producer Price Index showed wholesale prices fell 0.5% – the largest monthly drop since early COVID. While annual inflation slowed to 2.4%, the decrease primarily came from a 1.7% decline in trade margins, indicating businesses are temporarily absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them to consumers.

Economists warn this won’t last. “We are beginning to see trade policy filtering into hard data, affecting revenues and profit margins,” says RSM’s Joe Brusuelas. In fact, core goods prices (excluding food and energy) rose 0.4% in April – the fastest monthly increase in over two years. This suggests underlying inflation pressure despite the headline drop. Meanwhile, retail sales growth plummeted to just 0.1% in April following March’s 1.7% surge when consumers rushed purchases ahead of tariff implementation.

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