Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
When capital moves, it doesn’t tiptoe. It rotates — out of one asset class and into another.
In his latest conversation with Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick from Northstar Bad Charts, Alan digs into an idea they’ve been pounding the table on: we may be moving from a normal capital rotation into a Super Capital Rotation Event… and silver is the hinge.
Below is a quick breakdown of the key ideas — and why they think we’re closer to a late-1960s setup than the end of a 1970s-style bull market.
What Is a “Super Capital Rotation” — and Why Now?
Kevin and Patrick define a capital rotation event very simply:
- When the stock market outperforms gold and silver, capital is rotating into equities.
- When gold and silver outperform stocks, capital is rotating out of equities and into hard assets.
We’ve seen this before: during the 1930s, the 1970s, and the earlier 2000s… Each time, the pattern rhymed:
- Gold rises hundreds of percent
- Major stock indexes suffer 50–80% drawdowns (sometimes in multiple waves)
- Equities then go essentially nowhere for 10–15 years in gold terms
Right now, their “matrix” of indicators shows almost everything in bear markets when priced in gold: money supply (M2), the dollar index, CPI, PPI, major stock indexes, and most S&P sectors.
In other words: the process of rotation has already started. The event — the severe equity bear market — is what’s still ahead.
Why They Watch the Dow Priced in Silver
Instead of looking at the Dow in dollars, Patrick pulls up the Dow priced in silver on a long-term chart. Why silver? Because historically silver “free-floated” more than pegged gold, so the ratio shows cleaner, more granular trendlines going back before the 1970s.
Key points from that chart:
- A 45-year rising support line in the Dow/silver ratio broke down in the late 1960s.
- That break coincided with the start of gold and silver’s huge outperformance in the 1970s.
- Today, the Dow/silver ratio is breaking below a similar long-term moving average and Ichimoku cloud — the kind of setup that marked prior regime changes.
Right now, both the Dow and silver can rise together (as they did in the 1950s–60s). The tell comes when the Dow rolls over versus silver. That’s the first warning shot that the real rotation is underway.
The second warning shot? The Dow has to fall in nominal terms. That’s when policymakers panic, slash rates, print, and accelerate debt — and that’s when silver historically goes parabolic.
Silver’s Line in the Sand: The 55–56 Zone
Here’s where it gets tactical.
Kevin lays out two roadmaps, and both hinge on silver:
- Silver is pushing into a massive multi-decade resistance line — a cup-and-handle pattern that’s been forming for roughly 45–50 years.
- The critical level they’re watching is around $55–56. A decisive break above that zone would confirm a spike move where silver could sprint to $75–$100+ in a short period.
But here’s the catch:
- Silver’s spike would likely be followed by a brutal 35–50% correction — especially if it coincides with the start of a severe equity bear market and forced liquidations (margin calls, deleveraging, etc.).
- They remind us: whatever silver does on the way to $50–$100 is just the warm-up. The super move historically comes after the stock market enters a real bear market and policymakers throw everything at the wall.
Translation: volatility will be extreme. But for investors positioned early, the upswing in a super capital rotation has been where life-changing gains were made.
Want to See the Charts Behind This?
Words don’t do these charts justice.
If you want to see the Dow priced in silver, the long-term gold and silver cup-and-handles, the tech-vs-gold breakdown, and the gold-vs-S&P “GPS” Kevin calls a loss-prevention tool…
👉 Watch Alan’s full interview with Northstar Bad Charts to see how silver could trigger the Super Capital Rotation — and what that might mean for your portfolio.
Investing in Physical Metals Made Easy
People Also Ask
What is a “super capital rotation” and why does it matter for gold and silver?
A super capital rotation is when money leaves overvalued stock markets and floods into hard assets like gold and silver, often after equities enter a severe bear market. Historically, these periods have seen gold rise hundreds of percent while major stock indexes suffer 50–80% drawdowns. To see the charts behind this idea, watch Alan’s full interview with Northstar Bad Charts on the GoldSilver YouTube channel.
Why do analysts say silver is the key trigger for the next big move in precious metals?
In the interview, Kevin and Patrick explain that silver’s chart has a critical resistance zone around $55–$56; a breakout above that level could signal a fast spike toward $75–$100 and confirm a “super” rotation into metals. They argue that this move in silver would likely coincide with or follow a serious stock market downturn. You can see their silver roadmap and key levels in the full video on GoldSilver’s site and YouTube channel.
Can gold and silver rise at the same time as the stock market?
Yes. The historical data they show reveals that silver (and unpegged gold) often rise alongside stocks during the early phase of the cycle, especially when bond yields trend higher. The real separation comes when stocks finally roll over in nominal terms and capital rotates aggressively into metals.
How can I use gold-vs-stock ratios to avoid 50% drawdowns in my portfolio?
Kevin highlights the gold vs. S&P ratio as a kind of “GPS”: when the ratio is in a bull trend (above its long-term moving average and cloud), gold tends to outperform stocks, and vice versa. By rotating between gold and equities based on that ratio, investors can sidestep many of the worst drawdowns in both asset classes.
Are tech stocks and Bitcoin still better bets than gold in this environment?
When priced in gold, tech stocks have been in a long-term downtrend since 2000 and, according to their charts, are now breaking down again into a new bear market. Bitcoin, too, appears to be in a bear phase vs. gold unless and until it can move back above its long-term moving averages. In the video, the Northstar Bad Charts team compares gold, tech, and Bitcoin so you can see which asset is actually winning in real (gold) terms.
