Silver to $39.50: Up 9.4% Past 30 Days
Is the silver market on the brink of a massive squeeze?
That’s the question rattling around investing circles after a viral Twitter thread — highlighted in Mike Maloney’s recent video — claimed that silver deliveries are exploding, LBMA reserves are scraping the bottom, lease rates are spiking, and premiums in China are going wild.
In his latest deep dive, Alan Hibbard from GoldSilver separates hype from reality — fact-checking each claim with hard data from COMEX, LBMA, and Bloomberg. While some numbers don’t hold up, the overall picture still points to one thing: silver’s fundamentals are the tightest they’ve been in decades.
Let’s break down what’s real, what’s overblown, and why Alan says his next investment is more silver.
Claim #1: COMEX Silver Deliveries Exploding to 2 Million Ounces Per Day
The viral claim: Physical deliveries on COMEX have “exploded” to nearly 2 million ounces per day — matching global daily production and signaling a coming supply squeeze.
The fact-check:
Alan pulled the official COMEX data. While deliveries are indeed healthy in 2025, they’re nowhere near 2 million ounces daily.
- Total monthly deliveries recently hit 45 million ounces — which averages to about 1.5 million per day in peak delivery periods, but the rest of the month drops closer to under 1 million per day.
- The big spikes occur at the start of delivery months, followed by slower trickles — not an ongoing surge.
Conclusion: Deliveries are strong, but not unprecedented. The “2 million ounces/day” figure doesn’t match official records.
Claim #2: LBMA Silver Reserves Critically Low – Only 155 Million Ounces Free Float
The viral claim: The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is down to just 155 million ounces of freely available silver — the lowest in recorded history.
The fact-check:
The LBMA’s own published data shows about 760 million ounces in total vault holdings. However, the vast majority backs silver ETFs and other allocated holdings, making them unavailable for spot settlement.
Subtracting those leaves about 155 million ounces of “free float” silver — the number cited by TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali.
Annual silver demand is roughly 1.2 billion ounces (Silver Institute), meaning the LBMA’s free float is only enough to cover about six weeks of global demand.
Conclusion: This one checks out. Whether or not it’s “lowest in history” depends on how you measure it, but supply is undeniably tight.
Claim #3: Silver Lease Rates Spiking Over 6%
The viral claim: Silver lease rates—what it costs to borrow physical silver — are surging above 6%, signaling severe tightness in the market.
The fact-check:
Bloomberg data confirms it: one-month silver lease rates have spiked above 6% multiple times in 2025. For context, normal rates are near zero.
This repeated surge is extremely rare and is typically a sign that physical metal is in high demand and short supply.
Conclusion: 100% true — and a major red flag for a brewing supply crunch.
Claim #4: Chinese Panda Coin Premiums Going Wild
The viral claim: In Beijing’s Madan market, dealers are buying back 1983 27g Panda silver coins for 1.72 million yuan (~$239,000) — equivalent to $27,000 per ounce.
The fact-check:
Alan searched for any media coverage and came up empty. When he contacted the original Twitter poster, they cited an anecdote from a dealer in the Czech Republic.
While rare collector coins can fetch extreme premiums, this appears to be an isolated, numismatic-driven price — not a market-wide phenomenon.
Conclusion: Interesting, but not a reliable signal of broader silver price action.
Claim #5: Speculative Capital Flooding In
The viral claim: Retail and institutional investors are piling into silver due to tight supply, booming industrial demand, and no excess mining capacity — creating a perfect setup for a structural breakout.
The fact-check:
While capital inflows are harder to measure in real-time, Alan agrees with the thesis. Silver remains historically undervalued compared to gold, industrial demand is soaring (especially for solar and electronics), and mining supply growth is flat.
Conclusion: Fundamentally sound — silver’s setup is extremely bullish.
What It All Means for Investors
Alan’s bottom line? Even if some viral claims are exaggerated, the core story is undeniable:
- Physical silver availability is historically tight.
- Lease rates are flashing warning signs of stress.
- Industrial demand growth is colliding with stagnant mining supply.
That combination could trigger a structural breakout — ending decades of price suppression and potentially sending silver sharply higher.
Alan’s next move? Buy more silver — and he’s doing it at GoldSilver.
Key Takeaways
- COMEX deliveries: Healthy, but not at the claimed 2 million ounces/day.
- LBMA free float: Around 155M ounces — only six weeks of supply at current demand.
- Lease rates: Spiking above 6%, a clear stress signal.
- Chinese coin premiums: Likely isolated, not a market-wide trend.
- Overall outlook: Silver remains one of the most attractive assets for 2025.
Ready to position ahead of the squeeze?
Start building your silver stack today at GoldSilver — before the breakout hits.
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