The Fed Just Hiked. 16 of 18 Officials Say It’s Not Done.

The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, unanimously, moving the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. But 16 of 18 officials who submitted dot-plot projections still want more tightening this year — and gold and silver gave back their morning gains within the half hour.

Silver Price Outlook September 2026: The Hike Is Priced In. The Positioning Isn’t.

The Fed’s rate hike is nearly certain, priced at 85–91% depending on the reading. What isn’t priced in is what CFTC data shows underneath: speculative silver longs have rebuilt to the 73rd percentile of the past 60 weeks in a falling market, a materially different setup than August’s.

Core Inflation Just Ran Hot. Gold and Silver Rallied Anyway.

Core CPI ran hotter than forecast today, and Fed hike odds jumped to 90% — yet gold and silver both kept rising. Here’s the mechanism the market is actually trading.

Gold and Silver Fall as Hot PPI Lifts Fed Rate-Hike Odds

August producer prices accelerated to a 5.4 percent annual pace, and traders responded by pricing in 60 percent odds of a Fed rate hike, a reversal that pulled both metals lower even as the long-term case for owning them held firm.

Gold’s Dip Below $4,400 Didn’t Scare Wall Street. Here’s Why.

Gold dipped below $4,400 on Fed rate-hike bets before recovering. Here’s why BofA, Invesco, JPMorgan, and a new Financial Times report all say the structural case for gold just got stronger.

Silver Is Falling Faster Than Gold Today. Its Deficit Didn’t Change.

Gold and silver both fell on rate-hike odds today, but silver dropped further — nearly 2.1% to gold’s 1.9%. The move has nothing to do with silver’s own supply picture. Here’s the mechanism behind the gap, and why the deficit case hasn’t changed.

Why Is Gold Not Going Up? The Bears Vanished in June

Every futures market has two sides. Gold has been running on one since June, when short positions fell 35% in a single week and stayed down. That removes the buying that normally cushions a decline. Here is why the paper price is fragile right now, and why the ounce is not.

Gold Needed One Thing to Break $4,400. It Just Got Five of Them.

Five distinct market developments on August 17 point to the same conclusion: the policy ceiling holding gold below $4,500 is crumbling faster than most investors expected.

Zero Tankers Crossed Hormuz on Sunday. Oil Hit $89. Gold Barely Moved.

The 60-day US-Iran MOU expired this weekend with no replacement deal. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to zero. Oil climbed. Gold held. Here is why the non-reaction is actually the most important signal in this story.

Gold Climbs 1% Ahead of July CPI. Here Is Why the Print Matters More Than the Number.

Gold climbed above $4,427 on Wednesday as markets positioned ahead of the July CPI release and cut September Fed hike odds to 50-50. Here is the real-yield mechanism driving the move — and why the structural case is unchanged regardless of the print.