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Gold Jumps on Iran Deal Hopes. The Real Driver Is the Fed

Gold bullion bars on dark marble surface with rising price chart, illustrating the Iran deal gold price impact and Fed rate cuts thesis

Gold and silver spiked Wednesday after Axios reported the US and Iran are close to a one-page peace deal. Most coverage is calling it a safe-haven trade. It isn’t. A Hormuz reopening lowers oil, cools PCE inflation, and gives the Fed room to cut rates — and compressed real yields are the engine behind every major gold rally. Here’s why the mechanism matters more than the headline.

Why Gold Fell on the Hormuz Tanker Strike

Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint at the center of the gold price Hormuz tanker strike story.

The gold price dropped on May 4, 2026, as a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz and ISM Prices Paid hit 84.6 — the worst cost-inflation reading since April 2022. Gold barely moved. Here’s what that non-reaction tells investors about where the structural floor really is.

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