Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
🌅 Morning News Nuggets | Today’s top stories for gold and silver investors
April 10th, 2026 | Brandon Sauerwein, Editor
March CPI jumped to 3.3% while Q4 GDP sits at just 0.5%. The stagflation 2026 scenario economists warned about is now showing up in the data.
March CPI Comes in at 3.3%
The March CPI report landed at 8:30 AM ET — and it confirmed what markets feared. Headline inflation jumped to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest annual rate since May 2024 [CNBC]. That’s a sharp acceleration from February’s 2.4%, and the biggest one-month leap in years.
U.S. Consumer Price Index
Year-over-year % change · Jan. 2021–March 2026
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9% — the largest monthly increase since June 2022. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed to 2.7% from 2.5% in February.
The driver is no mystery. The Iran war sent gasoline above $4 per gallon nationally. One economist called it the largest one-month jump in fuel costs since at least 1957.
But inflation is only half the picture. Yesterday brought the final Q4 2025 GDP revision: 0.5% annualized growth. The initial estimate was 1.4%. One Wall Street firm called it a “staggering downward adjustment.” Real consumer spending rose just 0.1% in February. Personal income actually declined. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (the PCE index) hit 2.8% in February. That was before the war started.
Now the Fed is caught in the stagflation 2026 trap — two mandates pulling in opposite directions. Cut rates to support growth and risk stoking inflation. Hold rates steady and watch the economy stall. The March FOMC minutes released Wednesday showed some policymakers even considering a hike.
Still ahead at 10:00 AM ET: the University of Michigan’s preliminary April consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. March’s one-year inflation expectation was revised sharply higher to 3.8%, up from 3.4%. Another increase today would deepen the stagflation case.
What’s Keeping Gold Supported Near $4,770?
Gold held steady near $4,770 per ounce Friday morning. The metal is on track for a third straight weekly gain of roughly 2% [Yahoo Finance]. Despite wild midweek swings — a 3.3% spike on ceasefire news, then an almost total reversal — gold has quietly ground higher.
Central bank buying is one reason. January purchases slowed to 5 tonnes, well below 2025’s 27-tonne monthly average. But buying is spreading to new participants. Malaysia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan all added to reserves. China kept accumulating. The trend matters more than any single month’s total.
The other reason is risk. The ceasefire is fragile enough to keep safe-haven demand alive. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. Oil bounced back above $100 intraday Thursday. And Israel’s Lebanon campaign threatens to unravel the deal entirely.
This morning’s CPI is the immediate test. The 3.3% headline came in hot, which could push rate-cut expectations further out. CME data shows zero probability of an April cut. The structural forces behind gold’s rise — deglobalization, fiscal dominance, central bank accumulation, currency debasement — aren’t going away. If stagflation 2026 plays out the way the data suggests, they’re accelerating.
The bigger catalyst may be this weekend. VP JD Vance leads a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iranian officials. If those talks stall, expect gold to gap higher Monday morning.
Silver is trading near $75 after Wednesday’s ceasefire-driven surge. The gold-silver ratio at 63–64 suggests silver hasn’t fully caught up with gold’s war-premium repricing.
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Why Is the Strait of Hormuz Still Closed Despite the Ceasefire?
The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is barely 48 hours old. It’s already fraying from multiple directions.
The central promise — reopening the Strait of Hormuz — remains unfulfilled. Ship tracking data shows only five vessels crossed Wednesday, seven on Thursday. Before the war, roughly 140 transited daily. More than 600 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, including 325 loaded oil tankers [Yahoo Finance].
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO Sultan Al Jaber put it bluntly: the strait is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled. That’s coercion, not freedom of navigation.
The biggest threat to the ceasefire is Lebanon. Hours after the truce was announced, Israel launched “Operation Eternal Darkness” — its largest coordinated assault on Lebanon since the war began. Over 100 airstrikes hit Beirut, Sidon, the Bekaa Valley, and Tyre. Lebanon’s health ministry reported over 300 killed and more than 1,150 wounded.
Netanyahu says the ceasefire explicitly excludes Lebanon. Iran says it doesn’t. Pakistan, the mediator, also says Lebanon is included. The U.S. has sided with Israel. Iran’s parliament speaker warned that “time is running out.” Tehran threatened to close the strait again if attacks on Lebanon continue.
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran is doing “a very poor job” of allowing oil through. Iran’s foreign minister responded that the U.S. must choose: ceasefire or continued war via Israel.
Oil surged above $100 intraday Thursday before settling around $98; Brent crude stood near $96 by Friday morning.
VP Vance leads a delegation to Islamabad this weekend. If those talks fail, the two-week ceasefire window keeps shrinking.
Bank of America Says Commodities Will Surge for Years
Bank of America’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett thinks so. Commodities aren’t just having a moment. They’re entering years of structural outperformance [Bloomberg].
The argument is a regime change. For over a decade after 2008, the world ran on monetary easing and fiscal austerity. Bonds beat commodities. The 2020s flipped that script. Post-pandemic fiscal expansion, deglobalization, and populist economic policy now structurally favor real assets.
Hartnett called oil and energy 2026’s best contrarian trade back in late 2025. A 60% rally would take WTI to $96. Oil briefly topped $100 on Thursday.
But his more recent notes carry a warning. He flagged how current conditions mirror 2007–2008. Oil doubled to $140 before the financial crisis. Credit tightened in the background. He says 2026 asset performance is “ominously close” to that pre-crisis pattern.
His framework: sell oil above $100 per barrel. Buy 30-year Treasuries above a 5% yield. Buy the S&P 500 below 6,600. Favor commodities, international stocks, and emerging markets over U.S. mega-cap tech.
The uncomfortable subtext: the forces behind gold’s run — deglobalization, fiscal dominance, central bank accumulation, currency debasement — look a lot like the forces that preceded the last financial crisis. Hartnett is betting they fuel commodities on the way up. He’s also warning they could break something on the way down.
Could a New EU-US Minerals Deal Reshape the Global Resource Map?
The EU and U.S. are nearing a landmark agreement on critical minerals. The goal: reduce Western dependence on China, which dominates the raw materials essential to defense, energy, and technology.
A draft action plan outlines incentives like minimum price guarantees for non-Chinese suppliers. The two blocs would also cooperate on standards, joint investments, and coordinated responses to supply disruptions — including potential cutoffs by Beijing [Bloomberg].
China controls approximately 61% of global rare earth mining and roughly 91% of processing capacity [International Energy Agency]. Since 2023, Beijing has imposed escalating export restrictions on rare earths, gallium, germanium, and graphite. Those controls showed exactly what a supply cutoff looks like in practice.
The U.S. has been pushing allies to agree on pricing mechanisms that shield Western refiners from cheaper Chinese exports. Australia signed a free trade agreement with the EU in March 2026 that eliminates tariffs on critical minerals. The EU has also struck more than a dozen mineral partnerships with resource-rich nations from South Africa to Chile.
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SOURCES
1. CNBC — CPI Inflation Report: March 2026
2. Yahoo Finance — Gold Heads for Weekly Gain as Traders Weigh Rate Outlook
3. Yahoo Finance — Trump Says Optimistic on Iran Despite Ceasefire Strain
4. Bloomberg — BofA’s Hartnett Sees Commodities Surge Lasting Years
5. Bloomberg — EU and US Near Critical Minerals Deal to Combat Chinese Control
6. IEA — With New Export Controls on Critical Minerals, Supply Concentration Risks Become Reality
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
