Gold and Silver Hold As Bessent Promises a Hormuz Deal, a Vessel Gets Hit, and JOLTS Drops

Published: 08-04-2026, 11:41 am

Five separate stories explain why gold is rising today. Each one is a data point in the same running question: does the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in September, or does it hold? The answer keeps shifting. So do gold and silver.

Is the Hormuz Deal Actually Happening, or Is Another Vessel on Fire?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning that a Strait of Hormuz deal could arrive “today or tomorrow,” with terms guaranteeing freedom of movement for commercial ships. Oil dropped. Gold and silver climbed.

Within hours, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed a cargo vessel had reported a hit from an unknown projectile in the strait. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson also denied Tehran holds any talks with Washington, saying negotiations run through Oman only.

Three things are therefore happening simultaneously: a US official says a deal is imminent, a ship gets hit, and the other side denies any talks. That contradiction is what the market is pricing. Both metals are up because the Iran signal eases near-term rate-hike pressure through lower oil. Neither is pricing a done deal.

The Edge Every Investor Needs Smarter precious metals investing starts here. The Nuggets Newsletter brings you essential market insights, Fed updates, global trends, educational videos, and much more.

What Does the JOLTS Report Landing This Morning Mean for Gold?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing its June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10:00am ET today — right now, as you read this. Markets had forecast 7.44 million openings, down from 7.6 million in May.

The number matters because of what it does to September rate-hike odds. This is the first hard labor data since the Federal Reserve’s July 29 9-to-3 split, with three regional bank presidents preferring an immediate hike. September odds sit at approximately 65% per CME FedWatch. A soft print pulls that lower and gives gold room toward $4,150. A strong one starts rebuilding the September case before Friday’s payrolls report.

Watch gold’s reaction to the number as your real-time read on where the market is leaning.

Why Did NY Fed President John Williams Put Investors on Notice?

On Monday, New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy “remains well positioned” to reach 2% inflation, then added the line markets keep watching: “If inflation is not on track to 2%, the Fed will intervene to restore price stability.”

Williams is not a 2026 FOMC voter. His statement still carries weight because it mirrors the July 29 dissenters’ language exactly. The message from multiple corners of the Fed is consistent: the threshold for action is lower than markets expect.

That matters for gold holders because the current 27% drawdown from January’s record high of $5,589.38 was driven almost entirely by the real yield mechanism — the Fed’s pivot from easing to potential hiking. Williams is signaling that mechanism is parked, not retired. Friday’s payrolls report determines whether it restarts.

Why Is Silver Rising Three Times Faster Than Gold Today?

Gold is up 0.70%. Silver is up 2.29%. The gold-silver ratio has moved from approximately 70.9 on Monday to 68.6 this morning.

Two forces explain silver’s outperformance. First, lower oil prices ease the inflation pressure that pushed rate-hike odds higher all year. When the rate path softens, silver gains on two fronts: the safe-haven bid stays alive and the industrial demand outlook improves. Silver derives roughly 58% of its demand from industrial use, so easing tightening pressure benefits it more sharply than gold.

Second, the ratio at 68.6 still sits above its 50-year historical average of approximately 60. That gap reflects structural undervaluation for silver relative to gold. It does not close quickly, but every move in this direction has historically preceded significant silver outperformance in the later stages of gold bull markets.

How Does a Weaker Dollar Support Gold Right Now?

The US Dollar Index is near 100, its weakest level in approximately seven weeks, after five consecutive sessions of decline. Coordinated US-Japan yen-buying operations and the July 29 FOMC hold both trimmed the rate differential that had been propping up the dollar.

A weaker dollar helps gold through a direct mechanism: gold is priced globally in US dollars, so when the dollar softens, gold becomes cheaper for every non-dollar buyer, broadening demand. That tailwind is running quietly today alongside the Iran pause and the JOLTS release. None of these forces are resolved. However, together they explain why gold is holding above $4,080 rather than retreating — each one is pushing in the same direction, and collectively they are enough to keep a floor under both metals.

SOURCES
1. Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary — interview on CNBC Squawk Box, August 4, 2026. cnbc.com
2. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) — cargo vessel distress call, Strait of Hormuz, August 4, 2026. Reported via CNN live updates and Al Jazeera live blog, August 4, 2026.
3. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), June 2026. Released August 4, 2026, 10:00am ET. bls.gov/jlt
4. CME Group FedWatch Tool — September 2026 rate-hike probability, approximately 65% as of August 4, 2026. cmegroup.com
5. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams — remarks on monetary policy, August 3, 2026. Reported by MarketScreener and FXStreet, August 3–4, 2026.
6. Federal Reserve — FOMC Statement, July 29, 2026. Rate held at 3.50%–3.75%; three dissenters: Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), Logan (Dallas). federalreserve.gov
7. Silver Institute — World Silver Survey 2026. Silver industrial demand approximately 58% of total demand. silverinstitute.org
8. GoldSilver — Live Gold and Silver Spot Prices, August 4, 2026. goldsilver.com/price-charts/

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.  

You May Also Like: 

• Why Gold Is Holding Near $4,067 Ahead of a Jobs Week That Could Trigger a Rate Hike
• Manufacturing Hit a Four-Year High Today. Gold Didn’t Move. Here’s Why That’s the Story.
• Gold Is Caught Between a Structural Bull Case and a Policy Ceiling. Something Has to Give by Thursday.
• The Same Force That Crushed Gold All Year Just Flipped
• Gold ETFs Lost 45 Tonnes Last Quarter. Central Banks Bought 289. Here’s What That Split Means.
• Gold Had Every Reason to Rally Today. It Didn’t. Five Reasons Why.
• Central Banks Bought 289 Tonnes of Gold Last Quarter. Prices Were Falling the Whole Time.