Gold Falls to $4,055 as Hawkish Fed Remarks Meet a Hot CPI 

Published: 11-10-2026, 10:21 am

Gold and silver sold off in two distinct steps today. First, Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s hawkish pre-CPI remarks pushed December rate-hike odds to 99%. Then October’s inflation data landed just as hot as he had warned it might. 

Here’s the gold price today: $4,055.26 an ounce, down about 2.1% on the session. That is a fresh intraday low. Silver fell harder in percentage terms, down roughly 2.7% to $51.99. Both moves came in two steps. First, a hawkish Fed governor raised the stakes before the data even landed. Then the data backed him up. So why did gold fall twice in one morning? 

Key Takeaways 

• Gold fell to about $4,055 and silver to about $51.99, as two hawkish catalysts hit in the same session. 

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed should hike in December no matter what today’s data showed, with a bigger half-point move on the table if core inflation ran hot. His remarks alone pushed the odds of any December hike to about 99% on CME FedWatch. After the hot CPI print, the odds of that bigger half-point move rose further, to about 15% from roughly 1% before the data. 

• October’s CPI then ran hot: headline inflation rose 0.4% on the month versus a 0.3% forecast, and core inflation rose 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. No annual rate was published this month, a direct result of last year’s government shutdown. 

What Did Fed Governor Waller Say Today, and Why Did Gold React? 

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller spoke in London this morning, hours ahead of the CPI release. He said the Fed should raise rates in December even if inflation cooled. He also said a bigger, half-point hike should be on the table if core inflation ran at 0.3% or hotter. That is a bold pre-commitment from a sitting governor. Traders treated it that way, too. Specifically, CME FedWatch’s odds of a December hike jumped to 99% right after his remarks. The leftover 1% was priced to a bigger hike, not a hold. As a result, gold fell roughly 1.6% in the hours between his speech and the inflation report. Meanwhile, short-dated Treasury yields rose in London trade, pointing the same way. 

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What Did Today’s October CPI Report Show? 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released October’s Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Headline inflation rose 0.4% for the month. That beat the 0.3% forecast. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3%, also above its 0.2% forecast. One widely cited unrounded figure puts core inflation near 0.3% for a third straight month. That works out to roughly a 3.75% pace over the last three months, annualized. In short, this was not a borderline miss. It beat forecasts on both lines, in exactly the direction Waller had named as his own trigger. 

Why Is There No Annual Inflation Rate This Month? 

Most CPI coverage leads with a year-over-year number. This month’s report skips it. The Bureau of Labor Statistics never collected October 2025 price data, because last year’s 43-day government shutdown halted the count. So there is no base month to measure today’s prices against. As a result, economists can only compare October 2026 to September 2026. That puts extra weight on the monthly figures. It is a data quirk, not a judgment call by any outlet, and it is one reason this release landed harder than a typical October reading. 

How Did Gold and Silver Prices Move When the Data Hit? 

The internal price feed tells the story in plain numbers. Gold held near $4,077 in the fifteen minutes before the release. Then it dropped to $4,058.30 right at 8:30 a.m. By 8:45 a.m., it had slipped further to $4,055.26. Silver followed the same path, from the low $52s down to $51.78 at the release, before settling near $51.99. Neither metal pays a yield. So both become relatively less attractive the moment hike odds firm up and Treasury yields rise. Notably, this adds to a pattern GoldSilver has flagged before. When hike odds climbed after last week’s jobs report, gold sold off while silver briefly shrugged it off. Today, however, the two metals moved together instead. 

What Does This Mean for the Fed’s December Decision? 

The Federal Open Market Committee holds its final 2026 meeting on December 8 and 9. At its last meeting, on October 28, it voted 10 to 2 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. Two officials dissented, preferring a quarter-point hike instead. Today’s data hands that hawkish pair a real argument. 

Markets have already updated their pricing to match: the chance of a plain quarter-point move eased to about 85%, while the chance of Waller’s bigger half-point move rose to roughly 15%, up from about 1% before the data. That is a direct response to core inflation landing right at the 0.3% line he had named hours earlier. 

Does a Hot CPI Print Change the Case for Holding Gold? 

Not really. Gold’s rebound above $4,100 yesterday always hinged on this report, and today’s print resolved that question the hawkish way. However, the slower reasons people hold physical metal do not reset every time a monthly print beats or misses by a tenth of a point. Those reasons are about currency debasement and years of government deficits, not any single data day. A hot CPI print moves trading desks today. It does not settle whether paper money holds its value over the long run. That question was just as open yesterday as it is this afternoon. 

SOURCES
1. CNBC — S&P 500 futures drop after higher-than-expected CPI reignites inflation concern: Live updates
2. CNN Business — Inflation rose 0.4% last month, more than expected
3. investingLive — Fed’s Waller says a half-point rate hike in December may be needed if Core CPI comes in hot
4. EconoTimes — Waller Backs a December Fed Rate Increase Even if Inflation Eases
5. Business Recorder (AFP/Reuters wire) — Gold drops 1% on hawkish Fed comments ahead of US inflation data
6. futunn.com (citing Nick Timiraos, WSJ) — US Stock Preview: October CPI
7. CME Group — FedWatch Tool
8. Yahoo Finance — Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow sink after CPI data
9. PANews — After CPI Release, Probability of a 50-Basis-Point Fed Rate Hike in December Rises to 15.3%
10. Finimize — Fed’s Waller Says December Rate Hike Should Stay On Track

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.  

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