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Economic Slowdown Underway, But Recession Fears May Be Overblown

The US economy has shifted from consistently outperforming expectations to showing signs of moderation in early 2025.

The Federal Reserve recently reduced its GDP growth projection for the year to 1.7%, down from its December forecast of 2.1%. Major financial institutions including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have similarly lowered their projections, partly due to expected impacts from President Trump’s tariff policies.

Despite this cooling, Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintains the economy “seems to be healthy” with consumer spending moderating but remaining “solid.” While recession probabilities have increased somewhat (Goldman Sachs now puts it at 20%, up from 15%), this doesn’t indicate an impending crisis. Some concerning signals exist—Kalshi’s betting markets show 40% recession odds, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool forecasts a Q1 GDP decline, and consumer sentiment has fallen—but experts note these reflect uncertainty rather than economic reality.

Recent data, including February’s retail sales rebound and March’s stronger-than-expected PMI reading of 53.5, support the view that while growth is slowing from 2024’s unsustainable pace, it represents moderation rather than collapse.

U.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold Bars — Chaos Erupts in Global Bullion Markets
Videos

U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Gold Bars Spark Bullion Market Chaos

A shockwave just tore through the gold market. The United States has imposed a 39% import tariff on Swiss-refined 1 kg and 100-ounce gold bars — a move that blindsided traders, rattled refineries, and sent COMEX gold futures surging to record highs above $3,500/oz.  On the latest episode of The Gold Silver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard break down why this unprecedented policy decision could disrupt not just bullion flows, but the entire global financial system.  “This is the type of stuff that can cause another global financial crisis,” warns Maloney. “Those without gold or silver could get hurt

Read More »
News

Swiss Precious Metals Association Raises Alarm Over 39% U.S. Gold Tariffs

The Swiss Precious Metals Association (ASFCMP) has responded to the U.S. imposing a 39% tariff on gold imports and clarifying that 1kg and 100oz gold bars are not exempt from these tariffs. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection classified these Comex-deliverable gold bars under a code that is subject to tariffs, affecting imports from all countries, not just Switzerland. ASFCMP President Christoph Wild expressed concern about the impact on international gold flows and the historic gold trade relationship between Switzerland and the U.S. The association is engaging with Swiss authorities, the London Bullion Market Association, World Gold Council, and U.S.

Read More »
How Much Gold Should You Really Own?
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Gold Extends 30% Year-to-Date Gain as Economic Uncertainty Grips Markets

Gold prices have surged back near record highs, reaching $3,418.14 per troy ounce on Thursday, just shy of the all-time high of $3,448.50 set in June. The precious metal has gained over 3% since hitting a one-month low last week, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data that showed employers hired fewer workers in July and unemployment rose to 4.2%. The disappointing jobs report has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which typically boosts gold demand since the metal doesn’t offer regular yield payments. Gold has risen 30% year-to-date as investors seek safety amid economic

Read More »
Fed Takes Conservative Stance on 2025 Rate Cuts
News

Trump Names Tariff Architect Stephen Miran as Temporary Fed Governor

President Trump announced Thursday that he will nominate Stephen Miran, his Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, to temporarily fill a Federal Reserve Board vacancy through January 31, 2026. Miran would replace Biden appointee Adriana Kugler, who is stepping down six months early to return to Georgetown University. This marks Trump’s first opportunity to shape the Fed since returning to office, as he continues to pressure the central bank for lower interest rates. The appointment requires Senate confirmation, which may not occur before the Fed’s September meeting, and Trump indicated he will continue searching for a permanent replacement.

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Latest News

U.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold Bars — Chaos Erupts in Global Bullion Markets
Videos

U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Gold Bars Spark Bullion Market Chaos

A shockwave just tore through the gold market. The United States has imposed a 39% import tariff on Swiss-refined 1 kg and 100-ounce gold bars — a move that blindsided traders, rattled refineries, and sent COMEX gold futures surging to record highs above $3,500/oz.  On the latest episode of The Gold Silver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard break down why this unprecedented policy decision could disrupt not just bullion flows, but the entire global financial system.  “This is the type of stuff that can cause another global financial crisis,” warns Maloney. “Those without gold or silver could get hurt

Read More »
News

Swiss Precious Metals Association Raises Alarm Over 39% U.S. Gold Tariffs

The Swiss Precious Metals Association (ASFCMP) has responded to the U.S. imposing a 39% tariff on gold imports and clarifying that 1kg and 100oz gold bars are not exempt from these tariffs. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection classified these Comex-deliverable gold bars under a code that is subject to tariffs, affecting imports from all countries, not just Switzerland. ASFCMP President Christoph Wild expressed concern about the impact on international gold flows and the historic gold trade relationship between Switzerland and the U.S. The association is engaging with Swiss authorities, the London Bullion Market Association, World Gold Council, and U.S.

Read More »
How Much Gold Should You Really Own?
News

Gold Extends 30% Year-to-Date Gain as Economic Uncertainty Grips Markets

Gold prices have surged back near record highs, reaching $3,418.14 per troy ounce on Thursday, just shy of the all-time high of $3,448.50 set in June. The precious metal has gained over 3% since hitting a one-month low last week, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data that showed employers hired fewer workers in July and unemployment rose to 4.2%. The disappointing jobs report has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which typically boosts gold demand since the metal doesn’t offer regular yield payments. Gold has risen 30% year-to-date as investors seek safety amid economic

Read More »

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