Small US banks face a potential double threat from unrealized securities losses and possible recession impacts on loans.
President Trump’s trade tariffs and deficit-boosting budget could worsen this situation.
While bond losses reached $482 billion by late 2024, with regional and community banks holding nearly half these losses, the real danger comes when these paper losses combine with actual loan defaults, particularly in commercial real estate.
Unlike larger banks, smaller institutions have less capacity to absorb these combined financial shocks.