Why Bond Experts See Parallels Between Today’s Fed and the 1930s Downturn

At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates steady, rejecting President Trump’s calls for a rate cut. The decision came in a 9-2 vote, marking the first time in decades with two dissenting members who favored easing rates, believing inflation was under control. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained that inflation remains above the 2% target, and the economy’s strength justifies holding rates for now. Recent data shows inflation rose slightly in June, influenced partly by new trade tariffs, which are beginning to affect prices on goods like appliances and groceries.

Gold is experiencing a strong rally, reaching record prices driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and heavy central bank buying. Although the recent gold price highs invite comparisons to the 1980 peak during a period of extreme inflation and political turmoil, today’s economic conditions are different—current inflation and unemployment are lower, and markets are generally healthier. Central banks now actively buy gold, unlike in the 1980s when they were mostly sellers. This shift, combined with rising geopolitical risks, supports gold’s role as a key safe-haven asset, potentially sustaining its high value.

Both President Trump and Democratic leaders are making conflicting and sometimes misleading claims about inflation and price changes during Trump’s current term. Trump says prices for groceries, energy, and eggs have fallen, while Democrats say costs keep rising. Experts note many factors affect prices—like tariffs, weather, disease outbreaks, and global markets—so it’s too soon to fully judge the impact of policies. For instance, grocery and beef prices rose due to tariffs and supply issues, while egg prices fell mainly because the bird flu eased. Gasoline prices are steady but not as low as Trump claims, and electricity costs have gone

In its Q2 2025 Gold Demand Trends report, the World Gold Council (WGC) says total gold demand, including over‑the‑counter trades, rose 3 % year‑on‑year to 1,249 tonnes amid geopolitical uncertainty. Gold ETF inflows of 170 t in Q2 and 397 t in the first half were the strongest since 2020, while bar and coin demand grew 11 % to 307 t, led by a 44 % surge in Chinese investment and solid Indian buying. Central banks added 166 t of gold—slower than previous quarters but still high, and jewellery demand fell 14 % due to high prices. WGC analyst Louise Street notes that gold had already gained 26 % in H1 2025 and

The World Gold Council reported that worldwide gold demand (including over‑the‑counter trading) increased 3 % year‑on‑year to 1,248.8 metric tons in Q2 2025. Investment demand jumped 78 % as exchange‑traded funds posted their largest semi‑annual inflows since 2020, offsetting a 14 % slump in jewellery consumption. High prices deterred buyers in China and India, pushing global jewellery demand to its lowest since late‑2020. Central‑bank purchases fell 21 % in the quarter but remained significant at about 166.5 tons.