Tariffs at Depression-Era Highs to Keep 10-Year Treasury Yields Elevated

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined his vision for the next Federal Reserve chair in a recent interview, emphasizing the need for someone who can examine the entire organization beyond just monetary policy. “It’s someone who has to have the confidence of the markets, the ability to analyze complex economic data” Bessent says new Fed chair should be someone who can examine organization, Nikkei reports | 104.1 KSGF, Bessent told Japan’s Nikkei newspaper. He stressed the importance of forward-thinking leadership rather than relying solely on historical data. Bessent is currently leading the search for Jerome Powell’s successor, with an expanded list

Nvidia and AMD have struck an unprecedented deal with the Trump administration: they’ll pay the U.S. government 15% of their China chip sales revenue in exchange for export licenses. The agreement, finalized after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump last week, allows both companies to resume selling AI chips to China after months of restrictions. This marks a major shift in U.S. export policy—traditionally based on national security, not revenue generation. For Nvidia, the stakes are huge: being blocked from China cost them $4.5 billion in just one quarter. While the deal offers immediate market access, experts worry

New research from Goldman Sachs reveals a significant shift in who pays for tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. According to economists led by Jan Hatzius, American consumers have so far shouldered only 22% of tariff costs through June, with businesses absorbing the majority. However, this dynamic is changing rapidly as companies increasingly pass these costs to consumers through higher prices. Goldman predicts consumers will bear 67% of tariff costs if current patterns continue. The impact on inflation could be substantial, with core PCE inflation potentially reaching 3.2% year-over-year by December, compared to 2.4% without tariffs. This creates a complex

Markets are closely watching this week’s inflation data as the Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to cut interest rates. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Tuesday, is expected to show inflation rising to 2.8% annually, up from 2.7% in June, with tariffs driving the acceleration. The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed Board adds another voice potentially favoring rate cuts, as economists predict the Fed may need to act by September to avoid multiple dissenting votes. Meanwhile, retail sales data on Friday will provide crucial insight into consumer spending strength amid these economic crosscurrents.