Dollar Hovers at Multi-Week Lows as September Fed Rate Cut Becomes ‘Near Certainty’

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, stating the central bank is “behind the curve” on inflation and needs to raise interest rates. In a Bloomberg TV interview, Bessent said Japan has an inflation problem with core inflation above 2% for over three years, and predicted the BOJ will be hiking rates soon. His comments contrast sharply with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s position that the bank isn’t moving too slowly. The remarks contributed to the yen strengthening against the dollar, with USD/JPY falling to three-week lows.

U.S. natural gas prices dropped below $2.9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), reaching their lowest level since November 2024. The decline was driven by near-record production levels, high storage inventories, and expectations of milder weather ahead. August production in the lower 48 states averaged 108.3 billion cubic feet per day, up from July’s record of 107.9 Bcf/d. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, abundant supply has allowed above-average storage injections, with stockpiles now about 6% above seasonal norms.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid defended the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current 4.25%-4.5% range, calling the modestly restrictive stance “exactly where we want to be.” Speaking amid ongoing inflation concerns, Schmid noted that while monetary policy is restrictive, it’s not overly so, citing record-high stock prices and near-record-low bond spreads as evidence. With July’s consumer price index at 2.7%—above the Fed’s 2% target—and the economy showing solid growth, Schmid argues against rate cuts. He acknowledged the complexity of measuring tariff impacts on inflation, stating it’s unlikely there will be clarity in the near term

Social Security beneficiaries could receive a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, slightly higher than this year’s 2.5% increase, according to a new estimate from the Senior Citizens League. The Social Security Administration will announce the official adjustment in October based on inflation data from July through September, with the increase taking effect in January 2026. Despite the projected boost, some economists worry it may not be sufficient if inflation rises due to tariffs, with predictions that inflation could reach 3.7% by mid-2026.

Switzerland’s gold industry has expressed skepticism about Swatch CEO Nick Hayek’s proposal to impose a 39% export tax on gold bars shipped to the United States. Hayek suggested the retaliatory measure after President Trump imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss goods, though Trump later clarified gold would not face tariffs. The Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders in Precious Metals warned that such an export tax would harm Switzerland economically and damage its reputation as a free trade advocate. Switzerland continues diplomatic talks to lower U.S. tariffs.