Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News

Gold prices are consolidating near $3,355-$3,360 (spot) and $3,410 (futures) as investors position for a potential stagflation scenario—a combination of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation. Following disappointing U.S. jobs data that showed only 73,000 jobs added versus 150,000 expected, markets now price an 81% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Citigroup has raised its 3-month gold target to $3,500, viewing stagflation as the base case rather than a tail risk. The upcoming CPI report on Tuesday will be crucial, with a softer inflation reading likely to push gold through resistance at $3,450.

In a statement on Bloomberg TV, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for substantial interest rate reductions, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive for the U.S. economy. Bessent specifically stated that rates should be 150-175 basis points lower than current levels, which would represent a major shift in monetary policy. He anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a cutting cycle beginning with a potential 50 basis point reduction in September. This marks a notable divergence from the Fed’s recent cautious stance and suggests the Trump administration is pushing for more aggressive monetary accommodation to support economic growth and market conditions.

Despite record-breaking tariff revenue in July 2025, the U.S. budget deficit still climbed 20% compared to last year, according to Treasury Department data. While customs revenue surged 273% (or $21 billion) due to President Trump’s import taxes, federal spending continues to outpace government revenues. The deficit increase is driven by rising interest payments on the $37 trillion national debt and cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security. Although the Congressional Budget Office estimates tariffs could reduce deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years, economists warn this comes with trade-offs including slower economic growth and higher inflation.

The U.S. government’s budget deficit surged nearly 20% to $291 billion in July 2025, despite collecting $21 billion more in tariff revenue from President Trump’s trade policies. While customs duties jumped from $8 billion to $28 billion compared to last year, government spending outpaced revenue gains. Total outlays hit a record $630 billion for the month, growing 10% year-over-year, while receipts only increased 2% to $338 billion. For the fiscal year through July, the deficit stands at $1.629 trillion, up 7% from the previous year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the Federal Reserve should consider a larger 50 basis-point rate cut at its September meeting, arguing that revised job data shows the Fed could have started cutting rates earlier. In a Fox Business interview, Bessent noted that weaker employment figures for May and June only became apparent after the Fed’s July meeting. He also discussed Trump’s Fed board nominee Stephen Miran, expressing hope he’ll be confirmed in time for the September meeting, and mentioned that the search for Jerome Powell’s successor remains wide open.

Gold prices rose on Wednesday, climbing 0.6% to $3,363.61 per ounce, as investors increasingly bet on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. The rally was driven by mild inflation data and a weakening dollar, which made gold more affordable for international buyers. Markets are now pricing in a 96% chance of a rate cut next month, with gold benefiting as a traditional safe-haven asset that performs well in low-interest environments.

Gold extended its gains following the release of US inflation data that aligned with market expectations, reinforcing beliefs that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in their upcoming meeting. While underlying inflation rose to its strongest level since the beginning of the year, subdued goods prices helped ease concerns about tariff-related pressures on the economy. The precious metal, which doesn’t pay interest and typically performs well in lower rate environments, has climbed approximately 28% year-to-date. Market participants remain watchful for clarity on whether gold bar imports will face tariffs, after confusion last week when the US Customs and Border...

Switzerland’s precious metals lobby is urging U.S. President Donald Trump to make a formal commitment that gold will remain tariff-free. While Trump’s recent statement against imposing gold tariffs boosted market confidence, the Swiss association ASFCMP says only a binding decision will provide the certainty needed for global trade stability.

Gold prices bounced around as traders reacted to new US inflation data and uncertainty about future interest rates. Inflation for goods stayed mild in July, but core inflation rose at the fastest pace this year. Many still expect the Fed to cut rates in September, which could be good news for gold. Markets were also watching for clarity on whether US tariffs would hit gold imports. President Trump suggested there won’t be a levy, but the industry wants a formal decision. Gold is up more than 27% so far this year, supported by safe-haven buying amid global tensions.