DEC 23, 2014
Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Ava Capital Markets Chief Market Analyst Naeem Aslam discusses his outlook for the Gold market in 2015
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It is the king, isn’t it?
50 record highs this year.
What is the outlook for 2015? four more things we have to watch.
Number one, the grease we’re talking about—and the second is the oil.
We have to watch that one.
Something that not many people are focused on is the u.s. are earnings and how will they be?
This is the first time will have earnings when they have been not qe.
These companies would be able to produce at the same pace what they have done deviously.
We think the eu is as the gdp above 2.5% for the next year.
You can certainly put some of your money in there.
For the eurozone, italy and trusting, we think 1.4% is a full asked for the next year but the ecb is going to be busy in buying quantitative easing and they have to think about the consequences of buying government and corporate bonds.
That is really a way to increase their balance sheet, isn’t it?
How is greece going to complicate matters?
By then we will know if there is a general election forthcoming in greece.
I think that is an excellent question but my major feeling is that it is not greece.
They greece vote will come up with some sort of a solution.
We have much bigger economies than greece when it comes to italy and the us verity.
This can very well kick in in spain.
If there is a spillover effect that will be the main concern for the market and for that reason, -- we think having gold in your portfolio is a good investment next year.
The volatility index has taken a nosedive in the past days but if you have invested in the volatility, you would have made enormous amounts of money—the internet literally doubled.
Gold is hedged against them of malaysian.
We have a lot—and immense amount of and that is the reason we think the upside could the two words to 1400 and floor could be between 1000 and 1000. gold could be on this year percent—we have had a crash in oil prices.
The reason is the 2 million barrels—extra quantity on the market.
We think that unless this part of the equation is addressed, gold still has a—has not reached its goal.
That is the message in the past few days—saudi arabia and other middle eastern oil ministers.
That is the political side of what they are playing—they say we are not going to do that and the u.s. would have to do it but if stats, how much have you produced during the month of november that is nearly above 9 million barrels per day.
And that is the equivalent of what saudi arabia is producing which is at 84% of the opec sell.
Obviously they have concerns—they want to maintain the market share and the reason they are not lowering—they give more discounts of the asian market is the one primary reason we inc.
That oil will go down.
Saudis or opec members will not cut their output.
It is a bold call but we think the orting could be a floor.
At the same time, 50 to 55 is another area for investing if you want to take a warren buffett kind of you and buy into the trickiest ratio possible.
These are entrusting to look at.
The way he will filter out the companies is to look at the demand for what they have and what is the production cost and if you kind of put these things under your vision and then you start binding—that is a good investment.