Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News

U.S. inflation is expected to rise in June, largely due to the impact of new tariffs on goods like furniture, cars, and toys. Economists warn that businesses are now passing on higher costs to consumers, ending months of muted price increases. The Federal Reserve is under pressure: hold rates steady and risk criticism from the White House, or cut rates if inflation stays low. With Trump pushing aggressive new tariffs and supply chains under strain, analysts believe we’re entering a summer of rising prices—though some say Trump could still reverse course.

Silver ETFs are now at the center of the metal’s bull run, with inflows accelerating amid tightening supply, rising industrial demand, and trade tensions with Mexico. ETFs like SLV and SIVR have attracted massive interest, driving a sharp squeeze in physical silver markets, especially in London. With a 35% YTD gain in silver and a persistent supply deficit forecast by the Silver Institute, silver is becoming the go-to asset for investors priced out of gold. The gold-to-silver ratio at 86 still suggests silver is undervalued. As gold ETF flows cool, silver ETFs have become high-conviction trades, especially for cost-conscious retail...

Goldman Sachs now expects gold to reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with a forecast of $3,700 by the end of 2025, driven by continued central bank and institutional buying. According to the bank, central banks have been purchasing an average of 77 tonnes of gold per month so far in 2025—just slightly below previous expectations. China led May’s activity, adding 15 tonnes, helping to support strong demand. With ETF and institutional positions softening from earlier highs, Goldman believes there is room for more upside as investors return.

The June CPI report showed headline inflation rising to 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI hit 2.9%, with notable increases in consumer goods likely tied to new U.S. tariffs. Categories like apparel, footwear, and furniture posted gains after months of declines—an early sign that import levies are filtering into prices. With Trump threatening broad tariffs on over 20 countries, and retaliatory measures from the EU on the table, markets are watching closely. The Fed is expected to hold off on rate cuts at its upcoming meeting, as analysts warn that inflationary effects from tariffs may only just be beginning to appear.

President Trump’s call for a 1% Fed policy rate is raising alarms among economists and investors. While aimed at reducing borrowing costs for a rising federal deficit, such a drastic move—despite strong employment and above-target inflation—could be viewed as politically motivated. Analysts say it risks undermining the Fed’s credibility, triggering inflation, and rattling bond markets. Historically, 1% rates have only appeared during crisis conditions—not when the economy is growing 2% annually. With Trump’s new fiscal stimulus bill increasing debt supply, keeping market trust in the Fed’s independence will be critical to avoid higher long-term borrowing costs.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday as escalating global trade tensions increased demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $3,354.84 an ounce, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed geopolitical risks—including Trump’s latest round of tariffs and reports of growing U.S.-Russia tensions. Investors are also watching for the latest U.S. inflation data (CPI), which could influence the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Meanwhile, silver held above $38, with analysts saying it could top $40 if current price ratios to gold are maintained.

Gold climbed 0.6% to $3,363.97/oz as traders reacted to conflicting signals from Washington on global trade. While Trump has left the door open for further negotiations, his tariff threats continue to hang over the market, keeping investors cautious. Despite a stellar run earlier this year, gold has stalled below its record peak of $3,500/oz. Analysts note that if trade tensions worsen ahead of August, bullion may break out again. For now, the market remains in wait-and-see mode, with a cautiously bullish outlook.

Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast for Q4 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, citing a weakening U.S. dollar, potential inflation pressures, and ongoing global uncertainty. The bank says it favors gold, silver, and copper futures as top picks in the metals sector. The report also notes that stimulus from China and investor demand—particularly via ETFs and central banks—could help drive gold even higher. However, the bank cautions that new U.S. tariffs and global trade tensions may increase industrial costs and add volatility to the outlook. Jewelry demand may improve as consumers adjust to higher prices.

Could gold face U.S. import tariffs? According to the World Gold Council, it’s not out of the question. While there’s no current indication that gold will be targeted, WGC strategist Joe Cavatoni warns that with Trump’s administration prioritizing critical minerals, “anything is possible.” Cavatoni notes that gold isn’t classified as a strategic mineral, which makes tariffs less likely—but logistical issues and political shifts could change that. Meanwhile, gold remains range-bound around $3,300 as markets wait for clarity on interest rates and trade policy. Central banks remain active buyers, with 15 years of net purchasing and another strong quarter expected.