2023 Silver Price Predictions, Trends, & 5-Year Forecast

Where is the silver price headed in 2023? And where is it headed over the next 5 years?

I’ve compiled silver price predictions from numerous analysts, both inside and outside the precious metals industry (you can see the current silver price here). I’ll share those with you, then look at the three primary factors to predict its price, and finally my predictions for 2023 and the next five years.

This will be fun, so let’s jump in!

Silver Price Predictions Table

Silver averaged $21.71 in 2022 and finished the year at $23.98.

Here are the 2023 forecasts I gathered from numerous analysts both inside and outside of the silver industry.

There are some interesting comments that accompany these forecasts.

• David Morgan: “Silver tends to outperform 3:1 in bull markets. Once silver eclipses $30-50, the next move could soar to $70-$100.”
• Investing Haven: “Silver will move higher in 2023 because we expect the top in the U.S. Dollar to be confirmed. Moreover, our 2023 silver price forecast is supported by leading indicators like inflation expectations and the silver CoT report (silver futures market positions). Once silver trades near $36 it will be a matter of time until it attacks ATHs. We also tip silver as the precious metal to buy for 2023.”
• Avi Gilburt: “Long-term, I'm looking for silver to hit $50, but that might take a few years. Prices could easily double in 2023 and the first half of 2024.”
• Wells Fargo: “Commodities have been in a supercycle since 2020, with silver looking to play a special role, especially considering how cheap it is relative to other commodities. When you are in a supercycle, you often find high-beta plays do better. Between 1999-2011, silver did much better than gold.”
• Commerzbank: “Silver should benefit from the end of the Fed's interest rate hikes and the speculation on interest rate cuts that will start thereafter. The expected economic recovery following the end of the recession should additionally benefit silver as a precious metal with a high industrial use. With the easing of corona restrictions in China, silver demand should receive a further boost, as China is the largest consumer of silver.”
• Philip Newman, Managing Director of Metals Focus: “Industrial demand for silver was at a record in 2022, reaching 539 million ounces. With so many countries focused on energy security, silver saw new demand come from solar panel installations, which hit new highs this year. The automotive sector also contributed to additional demand, particularly the electrification of vehicles. The average silver content per vehicle is increasing.”
• OANDA: “A recession could put a damper on industrial demand but not enough to make silver a recessionary casualty. It is going to do well next year, just like gold.”
• Philip Newman/Metals Focus: “In 2022, 60% of silver was delivered by air, which was unprecedented. Silver usually travels by sea freight. [Freight by air is now] possible because of the high premium. Demand is so insatiable that they don't want to wait two or three months for a sea container to arrive.”
• Bank of America: "While upside may be limited near-term, mine supply is constrained, so a rebound of commercial purchases is set to ultimately push prices higher. [Supply] should also be supported by rising demand from solar panel and electric vehicle manufacturers, as the global community focuses on tackling climate change.”

You can see that while many are moderately to strongly bullish, there is some disparity among the predictions.

So how does one go about making a reasonable prediction about the silver price?

To answer that question, we first must understand that silver is…

The Hybrid Metal, with Dual Purposes and Dual Catalysts

Silver serves two primary functions. It’s a precious metal with a monetary role, and an industrial metal with numerous and growing applications. It’s also in jewelry and silverware and other objects, of course, but predicting the price comes mostly from these two functions…

Industrial Demand

Because of silver’s chemical composition, it is one of the best electrical and thermal conductors of all the metals. It also has growing use in the medical field, due to its antibacterial properties.

In fact, silver has so many industrial uses that the Silver Institute calls it “the indispensable metal.”

• And industrial demand for silver is going nowhere but up.

One big reason is that many “green” technologies require silver. Electric vehicles use almost twice as much silver as internal combustion engines… solar panels contain silver, and their installation is growing… 5G/mobile phone technology uses silver. And it’s clear that “greening” the infrastructure is a government priority.

Industrial demand was a whopping 539 million ounces in 2022. As the Silver Institute says, “Developments such as ongoing vehicle electrification (despite sluggish vehicle sales), growing adoption of 5G technologies, and government commitments to green infrastructure will have industrial demand overcome macroeconomic headwinds and weaker consumer electronics demand.”

They also point out that “silver jewelry and silverware are set to surge by 29% and 72% respectively to 235 Moz and 73 Moz this year, mainly thanks to an unprecedented rebound in Indian demand.”

This growth in industrial demand supports the silver price going forward.

Investment Demand

Investment demand for silver fluctuates each year, sometimes wildly. And that’s why it has the biggest impact on the silver price.

In 2022, investment in physical silver grew 18%, to 329 million ounces, a new record.

So, if investment demand grew that much, why wasn’t the price higher than just 3.7%?

Because ETFs holdings saw their largest annual decline last year. And ETFs are where funds and institutions—who have deep pockets—typically invest.

Now that we understand this base about silver, let’s look at the…

Three Ways to Predict the Silver Price

Lots of things can impact the silver price—the economy, US dollar, inflation expectations, among others—but historically these three have the biggest influence…

#1: Investment Demand

While demand for all of silver’s uses fluctuates each year, they don’t change dramatically. Greater industrial demand will support the market, but any big spike in the silver price has historically come from one source, where demand fluctuates the most.

Investors. In fact, you could say…

• Where investors go, so goes the silver price.

ETF holdings, where most funds invest in silver, are expected to grow in 2023, according to multiple analysts. With physical demand still elevated, the silver market could see higher total demand from investors this year.

Based on anticipated investment demand…

• We should expect higher prices in 2023.

#2. Gold/Silver Ratio

The gold/silver ratio is simply the price of gold divided by the price of silver. Since both are considered monetary metals, they usually move together—which can give us clues when the ratio gets stretched in one direction or the other.

The higher the ratio the more undervalued silver tends to be relative to gold; the lower the ratio the more overvalued silver is to gold.

And when readings get stretched, they tend to correct themselves, as this chart shows… notice the ratio roughly corresponds to the highs and lows in precious metals cycles.

As 2023 began, the ratio was about 76. While not at an extreme, it’s still 24% above its 55-year average.

I like how Leigh Goehring of Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates views the future for the silver price. “Silver will rise substantially due to monetary reasons. The U.S. dollar won’t survive in its current form. There’s no free lunch here. The debt is not sustainable and can never be repaid. And with higher rates the U.S. government won’t be able to pay the growing interest on that debt without printing money. Gold’s going to the $10,000 range; they’ll destroy the dollar. Gold will lead silver, but silver will surpass it, and the ratio will hit 20 again,” referring to the near-low the gold-silver ratio hit in 1980. This implies a long-term silver price of $500.

Mike Maloney, founder of GoldSilver.com, also expects to see the gold/silver ratio drop below 20. “The day that people rush back to gold and silver as monetary assets is the day you’ll see the ratio revert back to its 1980 low of 14, giving you enormous leverage to gold.”

• The gold/silver ratio suggests the silver price is likely to rise in 2023.

#3. Silver TRAILS Gold

One frustration of silver investors is that the price can, at times, be dormant, even when gold is trending higher. But this is actually historically normal.

This chart shows that silver usually trails gold in bull markets. But then it catches up and outruns gold.

You see the silver price usually surpasses the gold price in bull runs.

Since most analysts expect gold to be higher in 2023, we can reasonably expect silver to outperform it. If not this year, then 2024. Either way it suggests that silver prices are more likely to rise in 2023 than fall.

Many analysts have pointed out another fact about this tendency. In bull markets 90% of the move higher happens in the last 10% of time. This highlights both its nature to initially trail gold and also catch up and pass it.

• The natural tendency for silver to outperform gold suggests silver is likely to rise in 2023.

My Silver Predictions for 2023 and 5 Years

Based on the three factors to predict the silver price, here are my predictions for 2023 and the next five years.

The odds favor a higher silver price this year. And over the next few years.

If this prediction plays out as expected, then accumulating silver now would be wise.

About Jeff Clark

An accomplished analyst, author, and speaker, Jeff Clark is a globally recognized authority on precious metals. The son of an award-winning gold panner, with family-owned mining claims in California, Arizona, and Nevada, Jeff has deep roots in the industry. An active investor, with a love of writing, Jeff eventually became a mining industry analyst, including 10 years as senior editor for the world-renowned publication BIG GOLD. Jeff is also a regular conference speaker, including at Cambridge House, MoneyShow, New Orleans, Silver Symposium, Wealthion.com, and many others. Today, he provides free mining stock analysis at TheGoldAdvisor.com.