Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News

Gold prices are set to decline this week after US wholesale inflation data came in higher than expected in July. The stronger inflation report reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with traders now seeing only a 90% chance of a cut versus full certainty earlier. Gold typically performs better when interest rates fall, so this shift in expectations pushed prices down. Despite the weekly loss, gold remains up over 25% for the year, supported by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying.

Switzerland’s gold industry has firmly rejected Swatch CEO Nick Hayek’s proposal to impose a 39% export tax on gold bars shipped to the United States. Hayek suggested the retaliatory measure after President Trump imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss imports, though gold was later exempted. The Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders in Precious Metals warned that such an export tax would harm Switzerland economically and damage its reputation as a free trade advocate. Switzerland continues talks with U.S. officials to reduce the tariffs, which Trump justified by citing Switzerland’s trade surplus with America.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance, stating the central bank is “behind the curve” on inflation and needs to raise interest rates. In a Bloomberg TV interview, Bessent said Japan has an inflation problem with core inflation above 2% for over three years, and predicted the BOJ will be hiking rates soon. His comments contrast sharply with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s position that the bank isn’t moving too slowly. The remarks contributed to the yen strengthening against the dollar, with USD/JPY falling to three-week lows.

U.S. natural gas prices dropped below $2.9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), reaching their lowest level since November 2024. The decline was driven by near-record production levels, high storage inventories, and expectations of milder weather ahead. August production in the lower 48 states averaged 108.3 billion cubic feet per day, up from July’s record of 107.9 Bcf/d. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, abundant supply has allowed above-average storage injections, with stockpiles now about 6% above seasonal norms.

The U.S. dollar remained near multi-week lows as traders increasingly bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with markets now viewing it as a near certainty. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the Bank of Japan needs to raise rates while advocating for aggressive Fed cuts. Bessent called for a “series of rate cuts” and even suggested the Fed could start with a half-point reduction, though analysts view this as unlikely without broader Fed support.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid defended the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates at their current 4.25%-4.5% range, calling the modestly restrictive stance “exactly where we want to be.” Speaking amid ongoing inflation concerns, Schmid noted that while monetary policy is restrictive, it’s not overly so, citing record-high stock prices and near-record-low bond spreads as evidence. With July’s consumer price index at 2.7%—above the Fed’s 2% target—and the economy showing solid growth, Schmid argues against rate cuts. He acknowledged the complexity of measuring tariff impacts on inflation, stating it’s unlikely there will be clarity in the near term...

Social Security beneficiaries could receive a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, slightly higher than this year’s 2.5% increase, according to a new estimate from the Senior Citizens League. The Social Security Administration will announce the official adjustment in October based on inflation data from July through September, with the increase taking effect in January 2026. Despite the projected boost, some economists worry it may not be sufficient if inflation rises due to tariffs, with predictions that inflation could reach 3.7% by mid-2026.

Switzerland’s gold industry has expressed skepticism about Swatch CEO Nick Hayek’s proposal to impose a 39% export tax on gold bars shipped to the United States. Hayek suggested the retaliatory measure after President Trump imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss goods, though Trump later clarified gold would not face tariffs. The Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders in Precious Metals warned that such an export tax would harm Switzerland economically and damage its reputation as a free trade advocate. Switzerland continues diplomatic talks to lower U.S. tariffs.

Despite a cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index report, major Wall Street economists agree that higher inflation is coming due to tariffs. Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan Chase predict that tariffs will push up consumer prices, with Goldman estimating consumers will bear about two-thirds of tariff costs by fall. President Trump criticized Goldman Sachs for this prediction, even suggesting CEO David Solomon should “focus on being a DJ” instead. JPMorgan’s chief economist estimates tariffs could add 1-1.5% to inflation, with some impact already visible.