Gold and Silver Industry & Investing News
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TOP NEWSThis Gold Market Anomaly Could Spark a Major Rally
Gold ETFs are missing from the current rally - but State Street predicts their return could trigger a surge to $3,100/oz in 2025.
"I Believe Triple Digit Silver Is An Absolute" - Mike Maloney w/Alan Hibbard
In this episode of The Gold & Silver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard break down the facts behind silver’s ongoing supply deficits and the surging
READ MOREGold Strengthens as Markets Weigh Trump Policy Impact
Gold prices are showing strength, rising 0.3% to $2,668.79 per ounce, driven by a combination of a weakening dollar and strategic responses to the incoming Trump administration's trade policies. The market's positive reaction stems from reports suggesting a gradual approach to implementing new tariffs, which could help manage inflationary pressures. This development has led to declining Treasury yields and a retreat in the dollar from its two-year high, making gold more attractive to international buyers. Market attention is now focused on crucial economic indicators, including PPI and CPI data, with economists projecting annual inflation to reach 2.9%, up from November's 2.7%. Analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals warn that increased inflation from Trump's policies could potentially eliminate the possibility of Fed rate cuts, while UBS predicts significant supply constraints in the platinum market for 2025, projecting a deficit of 500,000 ounces.
READ MOREUS Sanctions Push Oil to Five-Month High Amid Supply Concerns
Global oil markets are experiencing significant upheaval as prices touch five-month highs near $79 per barrel, driven by the US government's most ambitious sanctions yet against Russia's energy sector. The measures, targeting major exporters, insurance companies, and numerous tankers, are creating ripple effects across global supply chains, with EU nations planning additional restrictions on natural gas and stricter enforcement of oil price caps. The situation is further complicated by warnings from Alberta's Premier about potential 25% tariffs under the incoming Trump administration, particularly significant given that Canada supplies over half of US crude imports. The market disruption is especially acute in Asia, where Chinese refiners have held emergency meetings to address delivery concerns, and Indian officials anticipate up to six months of major disruptions. Morgan Stanley analysts note these sanctions exceeded market expectations, creating significant downside risks to oil supply. This comes at a critical time as OPEC+ considers loosening output restrictions and amid speculation about potential tighter curbs on Iranian flows under the Trump administration.
READ MORECurrency Markets Brace for US Inflation Data as Dollar Surges
The dollar's strength continues to dominate currency markets, approaching its highest levels in more than two years as investors reassess Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Following strong jobs data, markets have significantly scaled back predictions for monetary easing in 2024, now anticipating only 28 basis points of cuts compared to the Fed's December projection of 50 basis points. The euro, while slightly up at $1.0257, has already lost over 6% in 2024 due to monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB. The currency market's attention is split between upcoming U.S. inflation data (PPI and CPI) and the potential impact of Trump's economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs. Meanwhile, other major currencies face their own challenges: the British pound continues its decline amid fiscal concerns, the yen weakens ahead of a crucial Bank of Japan meeting, and China's yuan faces persistent depreciation pressure despite central bank support measures. UBS Global Wealth Management predicts the dollar's strength may persist through the first half of 2025 before potentially reversing.
READ MOREUK Chancellor Pledges to Meet Fiscal Rules Despite Market Turmoil
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure over Britain's fiscal stability as markets experience their most severe selloff since 2008, pushing government borrowing costs to crisis levels. Addressing Parliament, Reeves insisted the government would meet its fiscal rules "at all times," despite the UK paying record rates to sell 30-year inflation-linked debt and gilt yields reaching their highest levels since the financial crisis. The market turbulence has intensified scrutiny of the Treasury's plans, with reports suggesting potential public spending cuts to address the fiscal gap. The situation has become politically charged, with Conservative opposition criticizing Reeves's decision to visit China during the market turmoil, while the pound has fallen to its lowest level in 14 months. The Chancellor acknowledged the economic challenges but emphasized the need to accelerate growth initiatives, though specific plans for fiscal repair remain unclear.
READ MOREFed's Bowman and Schmid Push Back Against Rate Cut Expectations
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid have introduced a cautionary note to the rate cut narrative, suggesting that the Fed's benchmark rate may already be approaching its neutral level following 100 basis points in cuts since September. Their position marks a notable contrast to other Fed officials, including Chairman Powell and Governor Waller, who maintain that rates are still restrictive enough to slow economic growth. Bowman specifically highlighted concerns about strong economic growth and a 20% rise in the stock market over the past year, warning that inflation progress could stall. Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner predicts this divide among Fed officials will likely widen with the new rotation of voting members in 2024. The situation is further complicated by uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump administration's economic policies, with Bowman advocating a wait-and-see approach before making further policy decisions. Additionally, Bowman, who is considered a potential candidate for Fed vice chair for supervision, emphasized the need for increased transparency in bank regulation.
READ MORE5% Treasury Yield Threshold Sparks Market Anxiety
A sharp selloff in the U.S. bond market has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield close to 5%, a psychologically significant threshold that's causing widespread concern among investors. According to DataTrek Research, this level is particularly unsettling because it represents the highest yield an entire generation of investors has experienced, with the last sustained period above 5% occurring just before the 2007 financial crisis. While today's economic conditions differ significantly, with a more stable banking system but higher federal debt levels, the market remains highly sensitive to this benchmark. The yield surge follows surprisingly strong economic data that has forced investors to reconsider the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to significant stock market declines, especially in technology shares. Though the economy may be able to withstand 5% yields, the speed of the increase and historical parallels to pre-recession periods have created substantial market uncertainty, particularly as investors await crucial inflation data.
READ MOREStock Futures Rise on Tamer Inflation Data and Trump Tariff News
US markets are poised for a rebound Tuesday as two key developments eased inflation concerns. The Producer Price Index rose less than expected at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% annually, providing welcome news ahead of Wednesday's crucial consumer inflation report. Adding to the positive sentiment, reports emerged that the incoming Trump administration might implement tariff increases gradually rather than all at once to minimize inflationary impact. This double dose of encouraging news sparked gains across major indices, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.7%. The market response included a retreat in both the dollar and Treasury yields, while homebuilder KB Home saw its shares surge nearly 10% after strong quarterly results. However, analysts at UBS cautioned that even gradual tariff increases could still complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting efforts.
READ MOREBarrick Halts Mali Gold Mining as Government Seizes Stockpiles
Barrick Gold Corp., the world's second-largest gold producer, has been forced to suspend operations at its vital Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali, marking a critical escalation in an ongoing dispute with the country's military government. The shutdown comes after Malian authorities began seizing stored gold and blocking exports since November, while also issuing an arrest warrant for CEO Mark Bristow. The conflict stems from disagreements over revenue distribution and Mali's new mining legislation, with the government claiming unpaid taxes and demanding compliance with updated mining codes. The stakes are high for both parties - the mine contributed over a third of Mali's formal gold exports in 2023 and paid $433 million to the state. While other mining companies in Mali have reached settlements with the government, Barrick's earlier offer of $370 million failed to resolve the standoff, leading to the current crisis and arbitration proceedings.
READ MOREUS Producer Prices Post Modest 0.2% Rise, Below Forecasts
December's wholesale inflation data revealed a surprising slowdown, with the Producer Price Index rising only 0.2% monthly, falling short of economists' expectations of 0.4%. This moderation was largely attributed to a 0.1% decline in food prices, including a significant 15% drop in vegetable costs, along with unchanged services prices. While energy costs rose 3.5%, the core PPI measure, excluding food and energy, remained flat from November. The report gains particular significance ahead of the consumer price index release and amid recent increases in commodity prices, including oil and agricultural products. Despite the modest inflation reading, the combination of price pressures and a strong job market has led Federal Reserve officials to remain cautious about interest rate cuts in the coming year.
READ MOREDecember PPI: Wholesale Inflation Eases, Beating Market Expectations
December's Producer Price Index revealed encouraging signs for inflation control, with wholesale prices rising less than anticipated at 3.3% annually and 0.2% monthly, falling below economist projections of 3.5% and 0.4% respectively. While core prices, excluding volatile food and energy components, edged up to 3.5% year-over-year from November's 3.4%, they remained below the expected 3.8% increase. The data arrives at a crucial moment as markets assess the Federal Reserve's potential rate decisions for 2024, with current projections showing limited likelihood of rate cuts until at least mid-year. This report, coupled with upcoming CPI data, will be pivotal in shaping expectations for monetary policy adjustments, particularly given recent strong labor market indicators that suggest the Fed may need additional evidence of cooling inflation before implementing rate cuts.
READ MOREDollar Soars to Two-Year High as Rate Cut Hopes Fade
The US dollar reached its highest level in over two years, driven by Friday's unexpectedly strong employment report that showed accelerating job growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. This economic strength has dramatically shifted market expectations, with traders now questioning whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates at all in 2025, down from previous expectations of two quarter-point cuts. The dollar's surge is creating widespread pressure on global currencies, particularly affecting the euro, which dropped to $1.0177, and the British pound, which fell to $1.21. The situation could intensify depending on Wednesday's US inflation data and President-elect Trump's upcoming policies on tariffs, taxes, and immigration, which could potentially fuel inflation. For the UK, the currency weakness is compounded by concerns over rising borrowing costs and potential government spending cuts expected in March.
READ MORETreasury Yields Climb as Rate Cut Hopes Crumble
US Treasury yields surged to multi-month highs following strong December employment data, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.80% and the 30-year approaching 5%. The selloff, driven by persistent inflation concerns and growing government debt, has led markets to price in fewer rate cuts for 2025 and is causing ripple effects across global markets, strengthening the dollar to a two-year high.
READ MOREGlobal Rate Reset Threatens UK's Economic Balancing Act
Global bond markets are in turmoil following stronger-than-expected US jobs data, forcing a worldwide repricing of interest rate expectations. While the US economy's strength might justify higher rates, countries like the UK face a more challenging scenario, combining mediocre growth with inflation concerns and currency weakness. The Bank of England is now expected to deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated, with markets predicting just two quarter-point cuts from the current 4.75%. The situation is particularly concerning for the UK as oil prices rise above $80 per barrel while sterling weakens, threatening to push inflation above 3% by April. This global reset in rate expectations could have far-reaching implications for asset prices, especially those valued based on assumptions of returning to the low-rate environment of 2012-2020. Japan's potential monetary policy normalization adds another layer of risk, as Japanese capital might flow homeward, affecting global market liquidity.
READ MORE40-Year Pattern Break: Yields Rise Despite Fed Rate Cuts
A historically rare phenomenon is unsettling investors as the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed by about the same magnitude as the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, something that's happened only twice since the early 1980s. The benchmark yield has surged from 3.6% to 4.77% since mid-September, nearly matching the Fed's full percentage point in rate cuts. This unusual movement breaks from the typical pattern where long-term rates fall during Fed easing cycles. Market experts attribute this divergence to multiple factors, including persistent inflation concerns, strong economic data, and uncertainty around President-elect Trump's policies. The situation echoes elements of the 1981 market environment under Fed Chair Paul Volcker, raising questions about the Fed's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target and potentially forcing a reassessment of rate cut expectations for 2025.
READ MORETreasury Yields Near 5% as Global Bond Selloff Intensifies
The global bond market is facing a dramatic reset as yields surge across major economies, led by the $28 trillion US Treasury market. Just days into 2025, yields have climbed significantly, with the 10-year Treasury rate rising over a percentage point in four months and approaching the symbolic 5% level. This bond market "tantrum" reflects multiple pressures: surprisingly robust economic data, reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts, and growing concerns about US fiscal policy ahead of Trump's return to the White House. The implications are far-reaching, affecting everything from mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs to stock market sentiment. Adding to market anxiety is the unusual disconnect between Fed policy and market yields, as rates continue rising even after the Fed began its easing cycle in September. With fiscal deficits projected to exceed 6% of GDP and expectations of Trump's growth-focused policies potentially expanding deficits further, some analysts warn of the return of "bond vigilantes" who may force a reckoning over fiscal policy.
READ MOREFed Officials Split on Rate Cut Path as Economy Shows Strength
Federal Reserve officials Michelle Bowman and Jeff Schmid have signaled a cautious stance on future rate cuts, suggesting that the benchmark rate may already be close to its "neutral" target following 100 basis points of reductions since September. Their position contrasts with other Fed officials, including Chairman Powell and Governor Waller, who maintain that rates remain restrictive. Bowman expressed particular concern about strong economic growth and a 20% rise in the stock market, warning of potential inflation risks. The differing views among Fed officials point to a potentially widening divide within the committee in 2025, with clarity on President-elect Trump's economic policies potentially helping to bridge these differences. Notably, Bowman, who is considered a frontrunner for the Fed vice chair for supervision role, also called for increased transparency in bank regulation.
READ MOREBitcoin Drops Below $91,000 as Rate Cut Hopes Fade
Bitcoin experienced a significant decline on Monday, falling 4.4% to $90,199, marking its lowest point since November 18 and a sharp retreat from December's peak of $108,316. The selloff was triggered by stronger-than-expected US employment data that reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The cryptocurrency market's weakness extends beyond Bitcoin, with Ether dropping 6.6%, reflecting broader concerns in the digital asset space. Technical analysts note a concerning head and shoulders pattern formation, suggesting a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish territory. While Bitcoin's 2024 rally was fueled by the approval of US exchange-traded funds and President-elect Trump's supportive stance, market enthusiasm has cooled in early 2025 as investors await clarity following the upcoming inauguration.
READ MORETech Stocks Lead Market Plunge as Rate Cut Hopes Fade
US stocks tumbled Monday, with tech leading the decline as the Nasdaq fell 1.6% and the S&P 500 dropped 0.8%. Markets reacted to diminishing hopes for interest rate cuts after strong December jobs data, with traders now expecting no cuts until September 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield reached a 14-month high near 4.8%, while the dollar surged to a two-year peak against major currencies. Adding to market pressures, oil prices climbed to five-month highs following new US sanctions on Russian crude, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla, all lost ground. Investors are now closely watching Wednesday's Consumer Price Index report for further clues about the Federal Reserve's potential policy moves.
READ MOREDollar Surge Weighs on Gold, Trump Trade Policy Fears Limit Losses
Gold prices dropped 0.5% to $2,677.13 per ounce following strong U.S. jobs data that dampened expectations for early Fed rate cuts. While a strengthening dollar pressured gold prices, ongoing uncertainty around President-elect Trump's proposed trade policies and inflation concerns continued to provide underlying support for the precious metal.
READ MORE