Silver Rises Over 120% YTD 
Published: 09-10-2026, 02:04 pm
Key Takeaways
- Gold trades near $4,366 to $4,405 depending on feed, as of the morning of September 10, 2026. That is roughly flat versus July’s close. The entire month’s calculus now hinges on the Fed’s September 15 to 16 meeting [CME Group].
- August producer prices came in hot. Headline PPI rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% year over year, a tenth above forecast. Core PPI cooled to 0.2%. The mixed print pushed September hike odds to roughly 60% by the morning of September 10. That is down from a peak near 70% earlier in the week, but well above August’s 31% low [Bureau of Labor Statistics].
- Institutional targets have not moved since the August edition of this series. Goldman Sachs ($4,900), JPMorgan ($4,500 for Q4), Bank of America ($4,360), and HSBC ($4,560 average) all still sit at or above gold’s current price.
- Central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes in Q2 2026. Third-quarter data is not due until the quarter closes on September 30. This piece treats Q2’s pace as the most recent confirmed reading, not a guaranteed continuation [World Gold Council].
- Silver trades near $64 to $67. The gold-silver ratio sits in the mid-60s. The Silver Institute confirms a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit through 2025, with a sixth forecast, but not yet confirmed, for 2026 [Silver Institute].
Gold enters mid-September holding roughly where it stood a month ago. That calm is deceptive. Every prior installment of this series has tracked one catalyst at a time. June’s edition covered a Fed that had not yet chosen its path. July’s asked readers to hold conviction through a near-25% correction. August showed how three soft data prints in one week flipped rate-hike odds and drove a 10% monthly rally. September inherits that momentum and tests it immediately. This is the fourth installment in our monthly Gold Price Outlook series. It answers one question: what changes for gold holders between now and the Fed’s decision, and what should you actually watch?
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Why Is the Gold Price Holding Steady Ahead of the September Fed Meeting?
Two forces are pulling in opposite directions. Neither has won yet.
The Mechanism: Real Yields, Still the Root Cause
Gold pays no yield. That single fact explains almost everything else in this article. When traders expect the Fed to raise rates, real yields rise. Bonds then compete harder against a metal that earns nothing while it sits in a vault. When hike expectations fall, that competition eases, and gold gets room to run. Roughly 90% of annual gold demand serves a store-of-value, reserve, or jewelry purpose rather than an industrial one [World Gold Council]. That makes gold about as pure a real-yield instrument as exists in any market.
What Happened to September Hike Odds This Week?
The August Producer Price Index, released Thursday, September 10, told a mixed story. Headline PPI rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% for the year. That is a tenth above forecast, and an acceleration from July’s 4.8% annual pace. Core PPI cooled to 0.2% monthly, in line with expectations [Bureau of Labor Statistics]. Much of the headline heat traces to energy costs. Crude oil has climbed as the ongoing US-Iran conflict keeps prices elevated. That is the mechanism worth understanding: a geopolitical story becomes a monetary story the moment it shows up in an inflation print the Fed must weigh.
A second story is unfolding in the bond market, and it cuts the other way. The Treasury’s first operation under an expanded buyback program bought up to $6 billion in longer-dated debt on September 9 and 10, triple the prior $2 billion ceiling. Buybacks generally add demand for existing bonds, which in theory nudges yields down. This time the market read it as too small. Dealers had priced in a larger number after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s public comments, and the actual $6 billion disappointed. Long yields rose rather than fell, with the 10-year pushing toward levels not seen in nearly three years. So this week, the buyback added to the pressure on real yields instead of easing it, in the same direction as the hot PPI print rather than against it.
Markets reacted fast. CME FedWatch pricing for a 25-basis-point September hike moved to roughly 60% by Thursday morning, according to market commentary published the same day [CME Group]. That sits well below the roughly 70% level some desks reported in early September. It also sits far above August 14’s 31% trough. The swing shows how quickly this number has moved across a single month. Friday’s August CPI release, due one trading day after PPI, will carry at least as much weight. Readers should treat any single FedWatch snapshot as a moment in time, not a settled forecast.
Gold price points and CME FedWatch hike-odds readings shown are the timestamped snapshots cited in this article’s sources; both figures move intraday and the odds reading is inherently the more volatile of the two. [CME Group]
What Does the September FOMC Meeting Mean for Gold?
The Fed’s two-day meeting concludes September 16 with a rate decision and an updated dot plot. Two scenarios matter most.
If the Fed Holds Rates Steady
A hold removes gold’s primary headwind. Real-yield expectations ease further, and gold keeps a clear runway toward the institutional targets below. August’s rally would be confirmed, not reversed. This was the base case for most of August, when hold odds ran as high as 69%.
If the Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points
A hike compresses gold’s near-term upside directly, by lifting real yields. Three FOMC participants dissented at the July meeting in favor of an immediate increase. August’s hot headline PPI print gives that camp fresh ammunition heading into the vote.
What Actually Decides the Outcome
The August CPI release, arriving the day after PPI, is the last major data point before the FOMC convenes. A cool core reading supports the hold case. A hot headline reading strengthens the case for a hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh notably declined to submit a dot-plot projection at the June meeting, the first sitting chair on record to do so. September’s dot plot will show whether that changes.
Are Central Banks Still Buying Gold Heading Into September 2026?
Yes, through the most recent confirmed data. The World Gold Council’s Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends report recorded 288.9 tonnes of net central bank purchases. That is a 62% increase year over year, and the strongest second quarter in the WGC’s data series [World Gold Council]. Poland, China, and several smaller reserve managers drove the buying. Russia and Turkey were the largest sellers.
The timing carries a lesson this series has made before. Central banks bought their largest quarterly total on record during the same quarter gold recorded its steepest price decline since 2013. Reserve managers treat gold as a structural holding, not a tactical trade. Falling prices function as an entry point for them, not an exit signal. Third-quarter figures will not publish until after September 30. This analysis is explicit that it cannot yet confirm whether Q2’s pace continued through the third quarter. Assuming a third straight record quarter from two data points would be a guess dressed up as a fact.
Investors are now confirming the demand floor from a different angle. The World Gold Council reported on September 9 that global gold-backed ETFs took in $18 billion in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record. Holdings rose 121 tonnes to an all-time high of 4,189 tonnes, and total ETF assets climbed 16% to $615 billion [World Gold Council]. North American and European funds drove the surge. That reverses the pattern from earlier in the year, when ETF investors were net sellers even as central banks bought. Two separate buyer types, official and private, are now leaning the same direction at the same time.
What Are Institutions Forecasting for Gold Into Year-End 2026?
Bank targets have not moved since August. Goldman Sachs holds a year-end target of $4,900. That figure was cut earlier in the year from $5,400, once expectations for a 2026 rate cut faded. JPMorgan projects a Q3 average near $4,300 and a Q4 target of $4,500. Bank of America’s 2026 average sits at $4,360, trimmed 14% from an earlier $5,093 call after its house view turned hawkish on the Fed. HSBC’s 2026 average target is $4,560, with 2027 projected near $4,925 [Bank of America; Goldman Sachs; HSBC; J.P. Morgan].
Every one of those targets sits at or above gold’s current price near $4,380. The direction of the institutional thesis has not changed across the last three editions of this series. The pace has changed, and pace is exactly what the September FOMC decision will help settle.
What About Silver, and Where Does the Gold-Silver Ratio Stand?
Silver is trading roughly $64 to $67 as of September 10. The gold-silver ratio sits in the mid-60s, above its 50-year average near 60 [Silver Institute]. That ratio has been unusually volatile this year. Silver’s market is smaller and thinner than gold’s, and the metal carries a dual identity as both a monetary asset and an industrial input. Roughly 58% of silver demand is industrial, spanning solar, electronics, and data-center wiring [Silver Institute]. That industrial exposure makes silver sensitive to a broader set of forces than gold alone.
The Silver Institute confirms a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit through 2025. It forecasts a sixth for 2026, though that forecast is not yet a confirmed result. A persistent deficit does not guarantee a rising price in any single month. It does describe a market where every ounce of investment demand competes against a shortfall mine supply has not closed in five straight years.
What Should Gold and Silver Holders Watch Through the Rest of September?
Four dates matter more than any others this month. August CPI, released the day after PPI, is the last major input before the Fed meets. The FOMC decision and updated dot plot land September 15 to 16. Watch whether Kevin Warsh submits a projection this time. Q3’s central bank buying figures are not due until after quarter-end, but they belong on your calendar now. They will either confirm or complicate the demand-floor thesis this series has tracked since June.
For readers holding physical gold and silver through a trusted custodian, this month’s rate-path noise does not change the structural case this series has made since June. That case rests on a debt load above $40 trillion, net interest spending on pace to exceed $1 trillion in fiscal 2026, and a central bank buying pattern that treats price weakness as opportunity, not warning. September’s Fed decision will move the near-term price. On its own, it will not change any of that.
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People Also Ask
Gold is trading near $4,380, roughly flat over the past month. The outlook hinges on the Fed’s September 15 to 16 meeting. Hot August producer prices pushed hike odds to roughly 60% as of the morning of September 10, down from a peak near 70% earlier in the week [CME Group].
August’s Producer Price Index rose 0.4% for the month and 5.4% for the year, a tenth above forecast. Core PPI cooled to 0.2%. The hot headline figure, driven partly by energy costs tied to the US-Iran conflict, lifted hike odds from August’s 31% trough toward the 60-to-70% range this week [Bureau of Labor Statistics].
A 25-basis-point hike would raise real yield expectations. That pressures gold, since it competes directly with yield-bearing assets. Three FOMC participants already dissented in favor of a hike at the July meeting. August’s hot PPI print strengthens their argument heading into the vote.
Through the most recent confirmed data, yes. The World Gold Council reported 288.9 tonnes of net central bank purchases in Q2 2026, a 62% year-over-year increase and the strongest second quarter on record [World Gold Council]. Third-quarter figures are not due until after September 30.
Institutional targets are unchanged since August. Goldman Sachs projects $4,900 by year-end. JPMorgan expects $4,500 by Q4. Bank of America projects a $4,360 average. HSBC forecasts a $4,560 average. All four sit at or above gold’s current price [Bank of America; Goldman Sachs; HSBC; J.P. Morgan].
The ratio sits in the mid-60s, above its 50-year average near 60. Silver trades roughly $64 to $67. Silver’s smaller market and roughly 58% industrial demand share make its ratio more volatile than gold’s price alone [Silver Institute].
SOURCES
1. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation (July 2026), Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (July/August 2026): bls.gov
2. World Gold Council — Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026, and Gold ETF Flows, August 2026 (published September 9, 2026): gold.org
3. CME Group — FedWatch Tool, September 2026 rate-hike probabilities: cmegroup.com
4. Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendar and June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections: federalreserve.gov
5. Congressional Budget Office — Budget and Economic Outlook, FY2026 net interest projections: cbo.gov
6. Silver Institute — World Silver Survey 2026, supply/deficit and industrial demand data: silverinstitute.org
7. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, and HSBC research notes, as reported via financial wire coverage (Reuters, Bloomberg): consolidated bank price-target figures, September 2026
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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